Climate Risk in Dolans Bay, New South Wales

Dolans Bay, New South Wales· Sutherland Shire· 2229
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Dolans Bay is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards and adapt to a changing climate.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Dolans Bay

increasing

Flood

65/100

Dolans Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

42/100

Dolans Bay has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

71/100

Dolans Bay is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

54/100

Dolans Bay faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards can impact properties and infrastructure located near the coastline.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Dolans Bay

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Dolans Bay is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.8

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Dolans Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

54/100

Dolans Bay faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards can impact properties and infrastructure located near the coastline.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.2

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Dolans Bay has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area status.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or fire events.
  • 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Dolans Bay
Elevation Range
0-30 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal and Riverine

Low-lying areas near the bay are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Royal National Park
Planning Overlay
Sutherland Shire Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering the national park are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heat stress is increasing, especially for elderly residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Low to Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Dolans Bay.

Source
2020
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Royal National Park caused smoke haze and elevated fire danger in Dolans Bay.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2016
stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to properties in Dolans Bay.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire424.3(+0.1)4.5(+0.3)
heat717.9(+0.8)8.6(+1.5)
coastal545.8(+0.4)6.3(+0.9)

By 2030, Dolans Bay is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave intensity and frequency, along with a moderate rise in flood and coastal risks. Bushfire risk is expected to remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen coastal defenses

Long-term

Implement measures to protect properties and infrastructure from sea level rise and coastal erosion, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Reduce bushfire risk

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around homes and creating firebreaks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Dolans Bay's Climate Risk Profile

Dolans Bay, located in the Sutherland Shire of New South Wales, is a picturesque suburb known for its waterfront properties and proximity to natural bushland.

However, like many coastal communities, Dolans Bay faces increasing risks from climate change. Rising sea levels, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and an increased risk of bushfires are all potential threats to the suburb.

Flooding is a significant concern for Dolans Bay, particularly in low-lying areas near the waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and riverine flooding, potentially damaging properties and infrastructure. The risk of coastal inundation is also increasing due to sea level rise.

Bushfires are another potential hazard for Dolans Bay, given its proximity to bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create a high fire danger, threatening homes and lives. Residents need to be prepared for bushfires and have a plan in place.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in New South Wales, posing a risk to vulnerable populations in Dolans Bay. The elderly, those with chronic health conditions, and people who work outdoors are particularly at risk during heatwaves. It is important to stay cool and hydrated during these events.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Dolans Bay?

Dolans Bay faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Dolans Bay?

Sea level rise could lead to increased coastal inundation and erosion, potentially impacting properties and infrastructure near the coastline.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Dolans Bay?

Clear vegetation around your home, create a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Dolans Bay?

Stay cool and hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Dolans Bay?

You can find flood maps and information on the Sutherland Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

Are there any community initiatives to address climate change in Dolans Bay?

Check with the Sutherland Shire Council for information on local sustainability programs and community initiatives.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections