Climate Risk Profile: Doubtful Creek, NSW

Doubtful Creek, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Doubtful Creek faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Doubtful Creek

increasing

Flood

65/100

Doubtful Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within a floodplain and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity is expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Doubtful Creek has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Higher temperatures
increasing

Heat

60/100

Doubtful Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Doubtful Creek is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Doubtful Creek

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Doubtful Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Doubtful Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within a floodplain and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity is expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Floodplain location

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Doubtful Creek is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Doubtful Creek has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Higher temperatures
  • ·Surrounding vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency
  • 4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Doubtful Creek
Elevation Range
50-60m
Flood Zone
Likely

The area has a history of minor flooding events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km
Planning Overlay
Potentially affected
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check RFS website for current alerts.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding event impacted Doubtful Creek, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and elevated fire danger in Doubtful Creek.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased heat stress and strain on local infrastructure.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after heavy rainfall, affecting some low-lying areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Doubtful Creek is projected to experience a noticeable increase in flood and heatwave risks. Bushfire risk will also rise slightly. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate these impacts.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and construct levees to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Near-term

Undertake vegetation management and improve building standards to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Doubtful Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Doubtful Creek, located in New South Wales, is projected to experience significant impacts from climate change. The primary concerns are increased flooding risk due to more intense rainfall events and rising average temperatures leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves.

The risk of flooding is exacerbated by the suburb's proximity to waterways and its location within a floodplain. Climate models predict an increase in extreme rainfall events, which will likely lead to more frequent and severe flooding.

Rising temperatures will also pose a significant challenge. The number of days exceeding 35°C is expected to increase, placing vulnerable populations at greater risk of heat stress. Bushfire risk is also projected to increase due to drier conditions and higher temperatures.

While Doubtful Creek is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader regional impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains, could indirectly affect the suburb. Residents and local authorities should take proactive measures to adapt to these changing conditions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Doubtful Creek?

The main risks are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, more frequent and severe heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Doubtful Creek?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline. Increased insurance premiums are also likely.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The local council is developing a climate adaptation strategy to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Check the council website for updates.

How can I prepare my home for more frequent heatwaves?

Install air conditioning or fans, improve insulation, and plant trees to provide shade. Stay hydrated and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

What should I do during a flood?

Stay informed about weather warnings, move valuables to higher ground, and be prepared to evacuate if necessary. Follow the instructions of emergency services.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Doubtful Creek, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Doubtful Creek's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections