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Climate Risk in Duranbah, NSW

Duranbah, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Duranbah, NSW, faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity are key concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Duranbah

increasing

Flood

60/100

Duranbah faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Tweed River and coastal location. Increased rainfall intensity and sea-level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea-level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Duranbah is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Hotter temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Duranbah is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising average temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Duranbah faces a moderate risk from coastal erosion and inundation due to sea-level rise. Coastal infrastructure and properties are vulnerable to these impacts.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea-level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Duranbah

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Duranbah is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising average temperatures pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Duranbah faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Tweed River and coastal location. Increased rainfall intensity and sea-level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea-level rise
  • ·Coastal proximity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Duranbah faces a moderate risk from coastal erosion and inundation due to sea-level rise. Coastal infrastructure and properties are vulnerable to these impacts.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea-level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Duranbah is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Hotter temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Increasing premiums due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and building standards.
  • 3.Consider sea-level rise projections.
  • 4.Evaluate energy efficiency and cooling needs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tweed River
Elevation Range
0-10m
Flood Zone
Coastal and Riverine

Duranbah's low elevation and proximity to the Tweed River make it susceptible to both coastal and riverine flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Some areas of Duranbah are designated as bushfire-prone, requiring specific building standards and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Duranbah experiences warm summers, with average maximum temperatures in January reaching 28.5°C. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding impacted the Tweed region, including Duranbah, causing widespread damage and displacement.

Source
2020
stormModerate

A severe storm caused coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure in Duranbah.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and heightened fire risk in Duranbah.

Source
2017
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in low-lying areas of Duranbah due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)6.7(+0.7)7.5(+1.5)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)4.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
heat707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)7.6(+0.6)8.2(+1.2)
coastal505.3(+0.3)5.6(+0.6)5.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)

By 2030, Duranbah is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks under a moderate emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and restore dunes to protect against coastal erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement vegetation management programs and improve building standards in bushfire-prone areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Raise Awareness and Education

Immediate

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Duranbah's Climate Risk Profile

Duranbah, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's coastal location makes it susceptible to rising sea levels and coastal erosion, threatening infrastructure and properties.

Increased rainfall intensity is expected to exacerbate the risk of flooding, particularly in low-lying areas near the Tweed River. The combination of riverine and coastal flooding poses a significant challenge for the community.

Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves will also impact Duranbah, placing stress on vulnerable populations and increasing energy demand for cooling. Bushfire risk is also a concern, with hotter, drier conditions creating a more conducive environment for fires.

Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort involving local government, residents, and businesses. Adaptation measures such as improved drainage, coastal protection, and heatwave preparedness are essential to building resilience in Duranbah.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · NSW Environment

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Duranbah?

Duranbah faces risks from flooding, heatwaves, coastal erosion, and bushfires, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will sea-level rise affect Duranbah?

Sea-level rise will increase the risk of coastal inundation and erosion, potentially impacting properties and infrastructure along the coastline.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Duranbah?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Is my property at risk from bushfires in Duranbah?

Check with the NSW Rural Fire Service to determine if your property is in a bushfire-prone area and follow their guidelines for preparedness.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Duranbah?

Contact your local council or the NSW State Emergency Service for information about flood risks and flood maps.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Duranbah?

The council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community. Contact the council for more information.

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