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Climate Risk in Estella, NSW

Estella, New South Wales· City of Wagga Wagga· 2650
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Estella is a suburb in Wagga Wagga, NSW, facing increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Estella

increasing

Flood

65/100

Estella faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Estella is moderate, particularly in areas bordering undeveloped land. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

60/100

Estella experiences a high number of hot days annually, with the risk of heatwaves increasing due to climate change. Vulnerable populations are particularly at risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Estella is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Estella

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Estella experiences a high number of hot days annually, with the risk of heatwaves increasing due to climate change. Vulnerable populations are particularly at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Estella faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to localized flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Estella is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Estella is moderate, particularly in areas bordering undeveloped land. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increased risk of flooding and other climate-related events.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Murrumbidgee River
Elevation Range
180-200m
Flood Zone
Areas near the river are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that parts of Estella have been affected by flooding in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to rural areas with bushland.
Planning Overlay
RFS bushfire prone area map available on Wagga Wagga City Council website.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
450 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Significant rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Wagga Wagga, including Estella, affecting some residential areas.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and increased fire danger in Estella.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for emergency services and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2010
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in low-lying areas of Estella due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Estella is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Mitigation Strategies

Near-term

Reduce fuel loads around properties and implement community education programs on bushfire preparedness.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement strategies to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, such as cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce strain on water resources during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Community Awareness

Immediate

Educate residents about the risks of climate change and the steps they can take to protect themselves and their properties.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Estella's Climate Risk Profile

Estella, located in Wagga Wagga, New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, with flooding and heat posing the most immediate concerns.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can overwhelm drainage systems, leading to property damage and disruption. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these rainfall events, further exacerbating the risk.

Bushfire risk is moderate, particularly in areas bordering undeveloped land. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. While not as immediate a threat as flooding, bushfire preparedness is crucial.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Rising average temperatures are contributing to increased heat stress and the potential for heat-related illnesses.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including improved drainage infrastructure, bushfire mitigation strategies, and community awareness programs. Individual property owners should also take steps to protect their homes and families from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · City of Wagga Wagga

Local Government Resources

City of Wagga Wagga

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Estella?

The main climate change risks in Estella are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Flooding is a particular concern due to the suburb's proximity to waterways.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The City of Wagga Wagga has implemented various strategies to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting water conservation.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

You can protect your property from flooding by elevating structures, installing flood barriers, and ensuring proper drainage.

How can I prepare for a bushfire?

Prepare for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, having a bushfire survival plan, and knowing the fire danger ratings.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Wagga Wagga?

You can find more information about climate change in Wagga Wagga on the City of Wagga Wagga website and the NSW Government's climate change website.

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