Climate Risk Profile: Geurie, NSW

Geurie, New South Wales· Dubbo Regional· 2831
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Geurie faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Geurie

increasing

Flood

65/100

Geurie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Macquarie River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Geurie has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding grasslands and bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Geurie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Geurie is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Geurie

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Geurie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Geurie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Macquarie River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Geurie is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Geurie has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding grasslands and bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Macquarie River
Elevation Range
270-300m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Macquarie River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that Geurie has experienced several significant flood events in the past. Recent infrastructure upgrades aim to improve drainage and reduce flood risk.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The Rural Fire Service (RFS) provides guidance on bushfire safety and preparedness. Residents are encouraged to maintain their properties and clear vegetation around their homes.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) provides heatwave forecasts and warnings. Local health services offer advice on managing heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
350 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Significant flooding of the Macquarie River impacted Geurie, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires near Geurie threatened properties and required emergency response efforts.

Source
2017
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Geurie, affecting homes and businesses.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted Geurie, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Geurie is projected to experience an increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe, posing a greater threat to public health. Bushfire risk will also increase due to drier conditions.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees, drainage improvements, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heatwave early warning system and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Geurie's Climate Risk Profile

Geurie, located in the Dubbo Regional area of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks are associated with flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these hazards in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the proximity of the Macquarie River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to both riverine and flash flooding, impacting homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Climate projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, further elevating flood risk.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and severe, posing a threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress, dehydration, and other heat-related illnesses. The urban heat island effect may also amplify the impact of heatwaves in built-up areas.

Bushfire risk is another important consideration, with surrounding grasslands and bushland creating a potential fire hazard. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires, threatening lives and property. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have a plan in place.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of adaptation and mitigation strategies. This includes investing in flood mitigation infrastructure, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and promoting bushfire preparedness. Community engagement and education are also essential to building resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Dubbo Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Geurie?

The main climate change risks in Geurie are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures.

How can I prepare for flooding in Geurie?

You can prepare for flooding by checking flood maps, having an emergency plan, and ensuring your property is adequately insured. Consider flood-proofing your home if you live in a flood-prone area.

What should I do during a heatwave in Geurie?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Geurie?

You can protect your property from bushfires by maintaining your property, clearing vegetation around your home, and having a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about bushfire warnings and follow the advice of the Rural Fire Service.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Geurie?

The Dubbo Regional Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including investing in flood mitigation infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and developing a climate action plan.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Geurie, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Geurie's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections