Climate Risk Assessment: Gilgunnia, NSW

Gilgunnia, New South Wales· Cobar Shire Council· 2831

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Gilgunnia faces increasing risks from bushfires and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns may also increase flood risk. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.8

Heat

4.2

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Gilgunnia

increasing

Flood

45/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use

increasing

Bushfire

68/100

The area is susceptible to bushfires due to dry vegetation and hot summers.

Key drivers:

·Higher temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

42/100

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is not significant in this inland area.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Gilgunnia

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

42/100

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.9

flood Risk

45/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is not significant in this inland area.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

bushfire Risk

68/100

The area is susceptible to bushfires due to dry vegetation and hot summers.

Primary Drivers

·Higher temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check bushfire and flood risk maps
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves
3.Review insurance options
4.Consider long-term climate projections

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range: Relatively flat terrain
Flood Zone: Low-lying areas near creeks

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Surrounded by native vegetation
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 36°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 700 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2012

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

2017

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted surrounding areas, leading to property damage and evacuations.

2019

heatwaveMajor

Record-breaking temperatures caused heat stress and health concerns.

2023

floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall events.

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.1(+0.6)
bushfire	68	7.2(+0.4)	7.6(+0.8)
heat	42	4.8(+0.6)	5.2(+1.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Gilgunnia is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and bushfires. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, leading to increased flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a community heatwave plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Implement bushfire mitigation measures

Near-term

Reduce fuel loads around properties and improve access for emergency services.

Est. cost: Medium

Upgrade drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve the capacity of local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity.

Est. cost: High

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to use water efficiently to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

About Gilgunnia's Climate Risk Profile

Gilgunnia, located in inland New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks are associated with bushfires, heatwaves, and potential flooding.

Bushfire risk is elevated due to the surrounding dry vegetation and increasingly hot and dry conditions. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant health risk, particularly to the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Ensuring access to cooling and staying hydrated are crucial during these events.

Changes in rainfall patterns may lead to increased flood risk, especially in low-lying areas. It is important to stay informed about flood warnings and have an evacuation plan in place.

While Gilgunnia is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, may indirectly affect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Cobar Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Cobar Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Gilgunnia?

The main risks are bushfires, heatwaves, and potential flooding due to changing rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

Reduce fuel loads around your property, clear gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood warnings?

Monitor the Bureau of Meteorology website and local emergency services for flood warnings.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Cobar Shire Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Check their website for details.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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