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Climate Risk in Glen Alpine, New South Wales

Glen Alpine, New South Wales· Campbelltown· 2560
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Glen Alpine faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to intensify due to climate change. The suburb's inland location mitigates coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Glen Alpine

increasing

Flood

45/100

Glen Alpine faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall, potentially exacerbating flood risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Glen Alpine has a notable risk of bushfires due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hotter and drier conditions, influenced by climate change, are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Glen Alpine is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Climate change models predict a rise in average temperatures, leading to increased heat stress on vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Glen Alpine is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion due to its inland location. The risk is considered negligible.

Key drivers:

  • ·Inland location
  • ·Absence of coastal features
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Glen Alpine

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Glen Alpine is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Climate change models predict a rise in average temperatures, leading to increased heat stress on vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Glen Alpine faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall, potentially exacerbating flood risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Glen Alpine is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea-level rise or coastal erosion due to its inland location. The risk is considered negligible.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Inland location
  • ·Absence of coastal features

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Glen Alpine has a notable risk of bushfires due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hotter and drier conditions, influenced by climate change, are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated risks of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks and adaptation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Campbelltown Creek
Elevation Range
80-120m
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near Campbelltown Creek

Historical flood data indicates localized flooding during extreme rainfall events. Council flood maps provide detailed information on flood-prone areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring specific building standards for new constructions and renovations.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average maximum temperatures in January are expected to rise, increasing the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Campbelltown area, impacting some properties in Glen Alpine due to heavy rainfall.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Glen Alpine required RFS intervention, highlighting the bushfire risk in the area.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to properties in Glen Alpine, including fallen trees and power outages.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Glen Alpine experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood454.7(+0.2)4.9(+0.4)4.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)6.6(+0.6)7.0(+1.0)
heat505.3(+0.3)5.6(+0.6)5.5(+0.5)5.9(+0.9)
coastal101.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Glen Alpine is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and expand drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, including vegetation management, fire breaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community workshops and information sessions to raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Glen Alpine's Climate Risk Profile

Glen Alpine, located in the Macarthur region of New South Wales, is projected to experience increased climate-related challenges in the coming decades. The primary concerns include heightened risks of flooding due to more intense rainfall, elevated bushfire danger from hotter and drier conditions, and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for increased inundation from local waterways during heavy rainfall events. The existing drainage infrastructure may be insufficient to handle the projected increases in rainfall intensity. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is also a major factor, given the suburb's proximity to bushland areas. Climate change is expected to exacerbate bushfire conditions, leading to more frequent and intense fires. Property owners should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are projected to become more common and severe, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves and be aware of the signs of heat stress.

While Glen Alpine is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change will affect the region. It is essential for residents and local authorities to take proactive measures to adapt to these changes and mitigate their potential impacts.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Campbelltown City Council

Local Government Resources

Campbelltown City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Glen Alpine?

Glen Alpine faces increased risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. These risks are projected to intensify in the coming decades.

How will climate change affect property values in Glen Alpine?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts. Factors such as flood and bushfire risk can influence property values.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Glen Alpine?

Campbelltown City Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting community awareness.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires in Glen Alpine?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by maintaining your property, clearing vegetation around your home, and having a bushfire survival plan in place. Refer to the NSW RFS website for detailed guidance.

What should I do during a heatwave in Glen Alpine?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Glen Alpine?

You can find information about flood risks in Glen Alpine on the Campbelltown City Council website, including flood maps and emergency preparedness information.

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