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Climate Risk in Glenorie, New South Wales

Glenorie, New South Wales· 2157
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Glenorie is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and bushfires. The risk scores are projected to increase by 2030 and 2050 due to climate change impacts.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Glenorie

increasing

Flood

65/100

Glenorie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Glenorie has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to significant bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Heat

40/100

Glenorie experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Glenorie has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coast.

Key drivers:

  • ·Not applicable
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Glenorie

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Glenorie experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Glenorie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Glenorie has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coast.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Not applicable

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Glenorie has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to significant bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Fuel load accumulation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood and bushfire risk maps
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to climate hazards
  • 3.Review insurance options
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Hawkesbury River
Elevation Range
Varies from 100m to 200m
Flood Zone
Potentially affected by riverine flooding

Some areas are susceptible to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to large areas of bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire prone area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties require adequate bushfire protection measures.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
35 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Hawkesbury River affected low-lying areas in and around Glenorie.

Source
2001
bushfireMajor

Significant bushfires threatened properties in Glenorie, requiring extensive firefighting efforts.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Another major flood event impacted the Hawkesbury-Nepean region, causing property damage in Glenorie.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused concern for residents, with smoke impacting air quality.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires had a significant impact on the region, with Glenorie experiencing hazardous air quality and heightened fire risk.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Glenorie is projected to experience increased flood and bushfire risk due to more intense rainfall events and drier conditions. Heatwaves will also become more frequent and severe.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including fuel reduction and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community workshops and awareness campaigns to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Glenorie's Climate Risk Profile

Glenorie, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, driven by intense rainfall events in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment, and bushfires, due to the suburb's proximity to extensive bushland.

Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves will also pose challenges for residents.

While coastal risks are minimal due to Glenorie's inland location, the community needs to focus on adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of flooding and bushfires. These strategies include improving infrastructure, enhancing emergency response capabilities, and promoting community awareness.

Long-term planning and investment in resilience measures are crucial to ensure Glenorie remains a safe and sustainable community in the face of a changing climate. Residents should stay informed about local risks and take proactive steps to protect their properties and families.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Hornsby Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Hornsby Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Glenorie?

The main risks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Glenorie?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline, while insurance premiums are likely to increase.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts?

Residents can take steps to protect their properties from flooding and bushfires, develop a heatwave action plan, and stay informed about local risks.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Glenorie?

The council is developing climate adaptation strategies, investing in infrastructure improvements, and conducting community awareness programs.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Glenorie?

You can find more information on the CSIRO website and the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Glenorie, use our analysis tool.

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