Climate Risk in Glenroy, NSW

Glenroy, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Glenroy faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these hazards, posing challenges for residents and infrastructure. Bushfire risk is relatively low.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Glenroy

increasing

Flood

60/100

Glenroy faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

stable

Bushfire

40/100

Bushfire risk in Glenroy is relatively low due to the lack of extensive bushland areas. However, dry conditions and strong winds can still pose a threat.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Strong winds

increasing

Heat

70/100

Glenroy is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Glenroy is not located near the coast, so coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion are not a significant concern.

Key drivers:

·N/A

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Glenroy

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Glenroy faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Glenroy is not located near the coast, so coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion are not a significant concern.

Primary Drivers

·N/A

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bushfire risk in Glenroy is relatively low due to the lack of extensive bushland areas. However, dry conditions and strong winds can still pose a threat.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Strong winds
·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to flood risk.

Price Impact

Potential for moderate price impact in flood-prone areas.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider energy efficiency measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local Creeks
Elevation Range: Varies
Flood Zone: Potentially affected areas near creeks

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Several kilometers
Planning Overlay: Not significantly affected
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Glenroy, affecting some residential areas.

Source

2020

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in increased heat stress and demand for cooling.

Source

2016

stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to property and infrastructure in Glenroy.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.5(+0.5)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Glenroy is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage infrastructure to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation to reduce water stress during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Increase Green Spaces

Near-term

Increase green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Glenroy's Climate Risk Profile

Glenroy, NSW, is projected to experience increased climate-related risks in the coming decades. The primary concerns are flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk being comparatively lower. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these hazards.

Flooding is a significant concern for Glenroy due to its location and existing drainage infrastructure. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, could lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. This poses risks to property, infrastructure, and human safety.

Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense in Glenroy. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect may further amplify the impact of heatwaves in densely populated areas.

While bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other parts of NSW, it is still important to be aware of the potential for bushfires, especially during dry periods. Maintaining vegetation and implementing fire safety measures can help reduce the risk.

Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation strategies. This includes investing in flood mitigation infrastructure, implementing heatwave management plans, and promoting sustainable urban development.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Glenroy?

The main climate risks in Glenroy are flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these hazards.

How will climate change affect property values in Glenroy?

Climate change may have a moderate impact on property values in flood-prone areas. Buyers should check flood maps and insurance costs.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Glenroy?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Is Glenroy at risk of bushfires?

Bushfire risk in Glenroy is relatively low due to the lack of extensive bushland areas. However, it is still important to be aware of the potential for bushfires during dry periods.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Glenroy?

The council is developing and implementing a climate strategy to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

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