Climate Risk Profile: Grays Point, NSW

Grays Point, New South Wales· Sutherland Shire· 2232
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Grays Point, NSW, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from bushfires and flooding. Rising temperatures and sea levels exacerbate these threats. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
4.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Grays Point

increasing

Flood

65/100

Grays Point faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Grays Point has a high bushfire risk due to its location near significant bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Grays Point experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

45/100

Grays Point faces a moderate coastal risk due to potential sea level rise and storm surges. The suburb's proximity to the coast makes it vulnerable to erosion and inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Grays Point

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Grays Point experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Grays Point faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff and potential riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

45/100

Grays Point faces a moderate coastal risk due to potential sea level rise and storm surges. The suburb's proximity to the coast makes it vulnerable to erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Grays Point has a high bushfire risk due to its location near significant bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to heightened climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone land designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Port Hacking
Elevation Range
5-50 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near Port Hacking are susceptible to inundation.

Historical flood events have impacted properties close to the Port Hacking foreshore.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Royal National Park
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to dense vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable during heatwave events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near Port Hacking are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some foreshore areas are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

1994
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Grays Point, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2007
stormModerate

Severe storms caused flash flooding and property damage in Grays Point.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires significantly impacted the Royal National Park, threatening Grays Point.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas of Grays Point.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
heat505.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)
coastal454.6(+0.1)4.8(+0.3)

By 2030, Grays Point is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with bushfire and flood risks increasing more significantly than heat and coastal risks. More frequent extreme weather events are expected.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive bushfire management plan for your property, including clearing vegetation, maintaining gutters, and having an evacuation plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Insulation

Near-term

Improve home insulation to reduce energy consumption and maintain a comfortable indoor temperature during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Stormwater Drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Install a Water Tank

Long-term

Install a rainwater tank to collect and store water for non-potable uses, reducing reliance on mains water during droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Grays Point's Climate Risk Profile

Grays Point is a suburb in southern Sydney, New South Wales, known for its proximity to the Royal National Park and the Port Hacking waterway. This location provides beautiful natural surroundings but also exposes the suburb to specific climate-related risks.

The primary concerns for Grays Point include bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland and flood risk from heavy rainfall and potential sea level rise affecting the Port Hacking estuary. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves also pose a threat to vulnerable populations.

Climate change projections indicate a worsening of these risks in the coming decades. Higher temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels are expected to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. This could lead to increased property damage, disruptions to infrastructure, and potential health impacts on residents.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions, community initiatives, and government policies. This includes measures such as improving bushfire preparedness, upgrading stormwater infrastructure, and implementing heatwave management plans. Protecting the natural environment, such as the Royal National Park and the Port Hacking estuary, is also crucial for mitigating climate risks and enhancing the suburb's resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Sutherland Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Grays Point?

The main climate change risks for Grays Point include increased bushfire risk, flooding from heavy rainfall and sea level rise, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires in Grays Point?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining gutters, having a bushfire survival plan, and ensuring you have adequate insurance coverage.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Grays Point?

Sutherland Shire Council has a climate change strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy efficiency, and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Grays Point?

You can find information about flood risks in Grays Point on the Sutherland Shire Council website, including flood maps and information about flood preparedness.

How will sea level rise affect Grays Point?

Sea level rise is projected to increase the risk of coastal inundation and erosion in low-lying areas of Grays Point, particularly those near Port Hacking.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections