Climate Risk Profile: Green Cape, NSW

Green Cape, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Green Cape faces significant climate change risks, particularly from coastal hazards and bushfires. The area is projected to experience increased heatwaves and localised flooding. Residents should prepare for these challenges and take steps to adapt to the changing climate.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

7.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Green Cape

increasing

Flood

40/100

Green Cape may experience localised flooding due to heavy rainfall and storm surges. Low-lying areas are more vulnerable.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Green Cape is located in a region with a high bushfire risk due to dry vegetation and prevailing winds. Increased temperatures and drier conditions exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

50/100

Green Cape is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

70/100

Green Cape is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. Coastal infrastructure and ecosystems are at risk.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Green Cape

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Green Cape is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Green Cape may experience localised flooding due to heavy rainfall and storm surges. Low-lying areas are more vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

70/100

Green Cape is highly vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. Coastal infrastructure and ecosystems are at risk.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm intensity
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Green Cape is located in a region with a high bushfire risk due to dry vegetation and prevailing winds. Increased temperatures and drier conditions exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate change risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price declines.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
4.Inquire about local council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Pacific Ocean
Elevation Range: 0-100m
Flood Zone: Coastal floodplain

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to national park
Planning Overlay: NSW Rural Fire Service Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: High
Erosion Risk: Significant

Historical Climate Events

2020

bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires caused significant damage to the region, including loss of property and impacts on local ecosystems.

Source

2017

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localised flooding in low-lying areas of Green Cape.

Source

2013

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased heat stress and health impacts on vulnerable populations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.6(+0.6)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.2(+0.2)	5.5(+0.5)
coastal	70	7.6(+0.6)	8.2(+1.2)

By 2030, Green Cape is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with coastal hazards and bushfires posing the greatest threats.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Invest in seawalls, beach nourishment, and other coastal protection measures to reduce the impact of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management plans, clear vegetation around properties, and ensure access to water for firefighting.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Management

Near-term

Develop heatwave management plans, provide cooling centers for vulnerable populations, and promote water conservation.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Flood Mitigation

Long-term

Improve drainage systems, elevate buildings in flood-prone areas, and implement early warning systems for flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Green Cape's Climate Risk Profile

Green Cape is a coastal area in New South Wales that is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges. The area is also prone to bushfires, which are expected to become more frequent and intense due to drier conditions and increased temperatures.

In addition to coastal and bushfire risks, Green Cape is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Localised flooding may also occur due to heavy rainfall and storm surges, particularly in low-lying areas.

The impacts of climate change on Green Cape could include damage to coastal infrastructure, loss of property, and disruption to local ecosystems. It is important for residents and businesses to take steps to adapt to these changes, such as investing in coastal protection measures, improving bushfire preparedness, and implementing heatwave management plans.

Addressing climate change in Green Cape requires a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the active participation of the local community. This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions, investing in climate resilience measures, and raising awareness of the risks and opportunities associated with climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW Rural Fire Service · NSW State Emergency Service · Bega Valley Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Bega Valley Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Green Cape?

The main climate change risks in Green Cape are coastal erosion and inundation, bushfires, heatwaves, and localised flooding.

How will sea level rise affect Green Cape?

Sea level rise is expected to cause increased coastal erosion and inundation, threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Green Cape?

You can prepare for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Green Cape?

You can find information about flood risks on the Bega Valley Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Green Cape?

The Bega Valley Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans to reduce the impacts of climate change on the local community.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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