Climate Risk in Greenwell Point, NSW

Greenwell Point, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Greenwell Point faces a number of climate-related risks, particularly from flooding and coastal inundation. Rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent and severe weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
6.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Greenwell Point

increasing

Flood

75/100

Greenwell Point is highly susceptible to flooding due to its low elevation and proximity to the Crookhaven River. Riverine and flash flooding are both potential concerns.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
stable

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk in Greenwell Point is moderate. While not directly surrounded by dense bushland, the presence of nearby vegetation and prevailing winds contribute to the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

60/100

Greenwell Point experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. The aging population is particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

65/100

Greenwell Point is vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion due to its low-lying coastal location. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to infrastructure and property.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Greenwell Point

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Greenwell Point experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. The aging population is particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

75/100

Greenwell Point is highly susceptible to flooding due to its low elevation and proximity to the Crookhaven River. Riverine and flash flooding are both potential concerns.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

65/100

Greenwell Point is vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion due to its low-lying coastal location. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk in Greenwell Point is moderate. While not directly surrounded by dense bushland, the presence of nearby vegetation and prevailing winds contribute to the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare a survival plan.
  • 3.Consider the potential impacts of sea level rise.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Crookhaven River
Elevation Range
0-5 meters
Flood Zone
High Risk

Historical flood events have impacted properties along the riverfront. Council is undertaking studies to better understand flood risks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km
Planning Overlay
RFS Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties on the outskirts of Greenwell Point are designated as bushfire prone. Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable to heat stress during summer months. Cooling centers may be activated during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding of the Crookhaven River inundated low-lying areas of Greenwell Point, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Greenwell Point threatened properties, but was contained by firefighters before causing significant damage.

Source
2017
stormModerate

A severe storm caused flash flooding and power outages in Greenwell Point.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Crookhaven River to flood, impacting low-lying areas and disrupting local businesses.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood758.0(+0.5)8.5(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat606.3(+0.3)6.7(+0.7)
coastal657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)

By 2030, Greenwell Point is projected to experience more frequent and intense flooding events due to increased rainfall and sea level rise. Heatwaves will also become more common, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Bushfire risk will remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Construct seawalls and levees to protect low-lying areas from coastal inundation and riverine flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Bushfire Management Plan

Near-term

Implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan, including hazard reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Establish a Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Develop a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Relocate Critical Infrastructure

Long-term

Relocate critical infrastructure, such as the power station and hospital, away from high-risk coastal areas.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

About Greenwell Point's Climate Risk Profile

Greenwell Point, located on the NSW South Coast, is a charming coastal village known for its fishing and natural beauty. However, its low-lying position makes it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Flooding is a major concern, with the Crookhaven River posing a significant risk of riverine flooding. Flash flooding is also possible during periods of intense rainfall. Sea level rise exacerbates these risks, increasing the likelihood of coastal inundation and erosion.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with nearby vegetation posing a potential threat. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk of bushfires spreading to the village.

Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves are also a concern, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly. Coastal erosion is an ongoing issue, threatening infrastructure and property along the shoreline.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from residents, local government, and state agencies. Adaptation measures such as improved drainage, seawalls, and bushfire management are essential to protect the community and its assets.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Greenwell Point?

Greenwell Point is primarily at risk from flooding, coastal inundation, and heatwaves. Sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity are key drivers of these risks.

How will climate change affect property values in Greenwell Point?

Properties in high-risk areas, such as those prone to flooding or coastal erosion, may experience price reductions. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Greenwell Point?

Shoalhaven City Council is developing climate adaptation plans and investing in infrastructure upgrades to reduce the impacts of climate change. Specific details are not available online.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Greenwell Point?

You can raise your home above flood level, install flood barriers, and ensure your property is properly insured. Check the council's website for flood maps and advice.

What should I do during a heatwave in Greenwell Point?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Cooling centers may be activated during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Greenwell Point?

The NSW Rural Fire Service website provides information about bushfire risks, fire danger ratings, and bushfire survival plans.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections