Climate Risk Assessment for Gregory Hills, NSW

Gregory Hills, New South Wales· Camden· 2557
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Gregory Hills faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly heatwaves and flooding events. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Gregory Hills

increasing

Flood

60/100

Gregory Hills faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local waterways. Development and urbanization can increase runoff, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

40/100

Gregory Hills has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during the bushfire season can increase the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

70/100

Gregory Hills is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Gregory Hills is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Gregory Hills

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Gregory Hills is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Gregory Hills faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local waterways. Development and urbanization can increase runoff, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Gregory Hills is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Gregory Hills has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during the bushfire season can increase the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review bushfire safety measures.
  • 4.Consider future climate projections for the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
South Creek
Elevation Range
60-80m
Flood Zone
Potentially affected by overland flow

Local creeks and drainage systems may be overwhelmed during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check RFS website for current fire danger ratings and alerts.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Urban areas tend to experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding in the Camden area affected Gregory Hills, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

Bushfires in the surrounding areas of Camden caused smoke haze and required firefighting efforts near Gregory Hills.

Source
2017
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in parts of Gregory Hills, impacting local businesses and residences.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions in January resulted in increased demand for emergency services and strain on infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.3(+0.3)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Gregory Hills is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is expected to remain relatively stable. Coastal risks will remain negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and expand drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Programs

Near-term

Educate residents on bushfire safety and property maintenance to reduce fire hazards.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water-saving measures to reduce strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Green Infrastructure Development

Long-term

Increase green spaces and tree cover to mitigate the urban heat island effect and improve stormwater management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Gregory Hills's Climate Risk Profile

Gregory Hills, located in the southwestern suburbs of Sydney, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and potential overflows from local waterways, and heatwaves, which are projected to become more frequent and intense. The suburb also faces a moderate risk of bushfires due to its proximity to bushland areas.

Flooding can occur due to heavy rainfall events, particularly during the summer months. Urban development in the area can increase runoff, potentially overwhelming drainage systems and leading to flash flooding. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place to protect their property and ensure their safety.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Gregory Hills. As global temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and prolonged periods of extreme heat. This can pose a health risk, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing medical conditions. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.

While the risk of bushfires is moderate, it should not be ignored. Gregory Hills is located near bushland areas, which can become dry and highly flammable during the bushfire season. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fire hazards and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Overall, Gregory Hills needs to focus on adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This includes improving drainage infrastructure to reduce flood risk, implementing heatwave management plans, and promoting bushfire safety awareness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Camden Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Gregory Hills?

The main climate change risks for Gregory Hills are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, more frequent and severe heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How can I prepare my home for a flood in Gregory Hills?

You can prepare your home for a flood by elevating appliances, clearing gutters and downpipes, and having an emergency plan in place. Check the Camden Council flood maps to understand your property's risk.

What should I do during a heatwave in Gregory Hills?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, avoid strenuous activities, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Follow advice from NSW Health.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Gregory Hills?

Protect your property by maintaining a clear area around your home, clearing gutters of dry leaves, and having a bushfire survival plan. Refer to the NSW Rural Fire Service for guidance.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Gregory Hills?

Information about emergency services can be found on the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) website and the Camden Council website.

Is Gregory Hills likely to experience water restrictions in the future?

Yes, with increasing temperatures and potential droughts, Gregory Hills may experience water restrictions in the future. Conserving water is important.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Gregory Hills, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Gregory Hills's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections