Climate Risk in Grosses Plain, NSW

Grosses Plain, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Grosses Plain faces increasing risks from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these hazards, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Grosses Plain

increasing

Flood

45/100

Grosses Plain faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area around Grosses Plain has a high bushfire risk due to the proximity of bushland and prevailing dry conditions during summer. Increased temperatures and drier vegetation contribute to the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier vegetation

increasing

Heat

50/100

Grosses Plain is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

As an inland suburb, Grosses Plain has a very low direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

·Distance from the coast

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Grosses Plain

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Grosses Plain is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Grosses Plain faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use
·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As an inland suburb, Grosses Plain has a very low direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier vegetation
·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area maps.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider the potential for increased insurance premiums.
4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range: Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone: Areas near creeks are prone to flooding

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay: Check NSW RFS website for bushfire prone area maps
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Grosses Plain, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source

2020

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Grosses Plain.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.1(+0.6)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.6(+0.6)	6.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Grosses Plain is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as heightened bushfire risk due to drier conditions. Flood risk will also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for evacuating your property in the event of a bushfire, including designated escape routes and emergency contacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Cooling

Near-term

Install air conditioning or fans to help keep your home cool during heatwaves. Consider energy-efficient options to reduce electricity consumption.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Flood Protection

Near-term

Install flood barriers or raise the foundation of your home to reduce the risk of flood damage.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Plant Native Trees

Long-term

Planting native trees can help to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade, making the suburb more resilient to heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Grosses Plain's Climate Risk Profile

Grosses Plain, NSW, is an inland suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding, all of which are projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Bushfire risk is elevated due to the proximity of surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions increase the likelihood of ignition and spread, posing a threat to homes and infrastructure. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, placing stress on vulnerable populations. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on elderly neighbors during periods of extreme heat.

Flooding is another concern, with potential for both riverine and flash flooding during heavy rainfall events. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place.

While Grosses Plain is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change will affect the region. Taking proactive adaptation measures is essential to protect the community and ensure a sustainable future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Government

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Grosses Plain?

The main climate change risks in Grosses Plain are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades due to rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan in place.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on elderly neighbors. Avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Grosses Plain?

You can find information about flood risks in Grosses Plain on the NSW Government and local council websites, including flood maps and historical flood data.

How will climate change affect property values in Grosses Plain?

Climate change may affect property values in Grosses Plain due to increasing risks from bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. Properties that are more vulnerable to these hazards may experience a decline in value.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Grosses Plain, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Grosses Plain →

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Grosses Plain's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

Get Your flood Risk Report — A$69

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections