Climate Risk Assessment: Gumbalie, NSW

Gumbalie, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Gumbalie faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Gumbalie

stable

Flood

40/100

Gumbalie faces a moderate risk of flooding. Local waterways and historical rainfall patterns contribute to potential inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rainfall intensity
  • ·Local topography
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Gumbalie has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate fire danger.

Key drivers:

  • ·Vegetation density
  • ·Temperature increase
increasing

Heat

60/100

Gumbalie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Gumbalie is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·N/A
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Gumbalie

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Gumbalie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Gumbalie faces a moderate risk of flooding. Local waterways and historical rainfall patterns contribute to potential inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rainfall intensity
  • ·Local topography
  • ·Waterway proximity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Gumbalie is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·N/A

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Gumbalie has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate fire danger.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Vegetation density
  • ·Temperature increase
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate risks

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider heatwave resilience
  • 4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creeks
Elevation Range
Variable
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near waterways

Check local SES for flood warnings and preparedness information.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Prepare a bushfire survival plan and maintain your property.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Stay hydrated and seek air-conditioned environments during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding event impacted the region, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened properties in the area, requiring evacuations.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Widespread bushfires affected the region, causing significant damage and smoke haze.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
bushfire606.3(+0.3)6.7(+0.7)
heat606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Gumbalie is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Building Resilience

Near-term

Retrofit homes with flood-resistant materials and improve insulation to reduce heat stress.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Create and maintain a bushfire survival plan and clear vegetation around properties.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Long-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Gumbalie's Climate Risk Profile

Gumbalie, NSW, is a suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are related to flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to intensify these risks over the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to local waterways. Increased rainfall intensity can lead to more frequent and severe flooding events, potentially impacting homes and infrastructure. Bushfire risk is also elevated due to the surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions create a higher risk of ignition and rapid fire spread.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate these conditions in built-up areas.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. This includes improving building resilience, managing vegetation, and implementing heatwave response plans. Long-term planning is essential to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and ensure the safety and well-being of Gumbalie residents.

While Gumbalie is not directly on the coast, understanding broader climate trends and their potential impact on the region is important for long-term resilience planning.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Gumbalie?

The main risks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to become more frequent and intense due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for flooding?

Consider using flood-resistant materials, elevating appliances, and ensuring proper drainage around your property.

What should I include in my bushfire survival plan?

Your plan should include evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and a list of essential items to take with you.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about local climate change impacts?

Consult the CSIRO climate change projections and the NSW government's climate change website for detailed information.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections