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Climate Risk in Harrington, NSW

Harrington, New South Wales· MidCoast Council· 2427
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Harrington, NSW, faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves and coastal hazards. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
5.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Harrington

increasing

Flood

65/100

Harrington faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Harrington has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Harrington is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

53/100

Harrington is exposed to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This could impact coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Harrington

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Harrington is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Harrington faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

53/100

Harrington is exposed to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This could impact coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Harrington has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance premiums.
  • 4.Evaluate the property's energy efficiency and cooling options.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Manning River
Elevation Range
0-10m
Flood Zone
Yes

Several properties in Harrington are located within identified flood zones.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Parts of Harrington are designated as bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Harrington experiences several days above 30°C during summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Manning River, impacting Harrington and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Harrington, causing smoke haze and property damage.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in the Manning River, affecting low-lying areas of Harrington.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in Harrington.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat505.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)
coastal535.9(+0.6)6.5(+1.2)

By 2030, Harrington is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk. Flooding and coastal hazards are expected to worsen, while bushfire and heat risks will also increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood levees and drainage improvements to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Management Strategy

Long-term

Develop a coastal management strategy to address the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Harrington's Climate Risk Profile

Harrington, located on the Mid North Coast of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's proximity to the Manning River and the coast makes it particularly susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion. Rising temperatures and drier conditions are also contributing to an elevated bushfire risk.

Flooding is a significant concern for Harrington. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, is likely to lead to more frequent and severe flood events. The low-lying areas of the suburb are especially vulnerable, and residents should be aware of flood risks and have appropriate preparedness plans in place.

Bushfire risk is also increasing in Harrington. Hotter, drier conditions are creating a more favorable environment for bushfires to ignite and spread. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Harrington. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water and spending time in air-conditioned environments.

Coastal erosion and inundation are also threats to Harrington. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Long-term planning is needed to address these challenges.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · MidCoast Council · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

MidCoast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Harrington?

Harrington faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding in Harrington?

Check flood maps, elevate your home if possible, and have an evacuation plan in place.

What should I do during a heatwave in Harrington?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and use air conditioning or fans to stay cool.

How is the council addressing climate change in Harrington?

MidCoast Council is developing climate strategies and implementing adaptation measures to protect the community.

Where can I find more information about bushfire safety in Harrington?

Visit the NSW Rural Fire Service website for information on bushfire preparedness and safety.

Is my property in Harrington at risk from coastal erosion?

Check with MidCoast Council to determine if your property is located in a coastal erosion zone.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Harrington, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Harrington →

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