Climate Risk in Hay South, NSW

Hay South, New South Wales· Hay· 2711

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Hay South is a suburb in the Riverina region of New South Wales. It faces moderate risks from flooding and high risks from heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Bushfire risk is relatively low.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Hay South

increasing

Flood

60/100

Hay South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Murrumbidgee River and flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding and localised flash flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine overflow

stable

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Hay South is relatively low compared to other regions in NSW, but dry grasslands surrounding the suburb can pose a threat during hot and windy conditions.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Hot and windy conditions

increasing

Heat

70/100

Hay South experiences high temperatures during summer, increasing the risk of heatwaves and heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Hay South is located inland and does not face any direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Hay South

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Hay South experiences high temperatures during summer, increasing the risk of heatwaves and heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Hay South faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Murrumbidgee River and flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding and localised flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine overflow
·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Hay South is located inland and does not face any direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfire in Hay South is relatively low compared to other regions in NSW, but dry grasslands surrounding the suburb can pose a threat during hot and windy conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Hot and windy conditions
·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heat risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increasing flood and heat risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs
2.Assess property's heat resilience
3.Consider future climate risks

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Murrumbidgee River
Elevation Range: 100-105m
Flood Zone: Likely to be affected by flooding

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 1-2km
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 33.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 600 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010

floodModerate

The Murrumbidgee River flooded, inundating parts of Hay South and causing property damage.

Source

2013

heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and heat stress for residents.

Source

2016

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localised flooding in low-lying areas of Hay South.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.5(+0.5)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Hay South is projected to experience an increase in flood and heatwave risks under a high emissions scenario. Rainfall intensity is expected to increase, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. Heatwaves will become more common and intense, posing a greater threat to vulnerable populations.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of localised flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through education and incentives to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop Community Emergency Plan

Near-term

Create a community emergency plan to prepare for and respond to climate-related disasters such as floods and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Hay South's Climate Risk Profile

Hay South, located in the Riverina region of New South Wales, is characterized by its flat terrain and proximity to the Murrumbidgee River. This geographical setting makes the suburb susceptible to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall and riverine overflow. Climate change projections indicate an increasing trend in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events.

Heatwaves pose a significant threat to Hay South, with the region experiencing high temperatures during the summer months. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly at risk during these events. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are expected to increase with climate change, further exacerbating the risks.

While the risk of bushfire is relatively low compared to other regions in NSW, the dry grasslands surrounding Hay South can still pose a threat during hot and windy conditions. It is important for residents to maintain their properties and be aware of bushfire safety measures.

Adaptation measures are crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change in Hay South. These include improving drainage infrastructure to reduce flood risk, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and promoting water conservation practices. Community awareness and preparedness are also essential to ensure the safety and well-being of residents.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · Hay Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Hay Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Hay South?

The main climate change risks in Hay South are flooding and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to more intense rainfall events and rising temperatures.

How can I prepare for a flood in Hay South?

You can prepare for a flood by checking flood maps, having an emergency plan, and ensuring your property is adequately insured. It's also important to stay informed about weather forecasts and warnings.

What should I do during a heatwave in Hay South?

During a heatwave, it's important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbours and friends, and seek medical attention if you experience symptoms of heat stress.

Is my property at risk of bushfire in Hay South?

While the risk of bushfire is relatively low, it's still important to be aware of the potential threat. Maintain your property, clear dry vegetation, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Hay South?

You can find more information about climate change in Hay South from the Hay Shire Council website, the NSW Government's climate change website, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

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