Climate Risk Assessment for Jincumbilly, NSW

Jincumbilly, New South Wales

High Risk

Updated May 2026

Jincumbilly faces significant risks from bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100

High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

8.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Jincumbilly

increasing

Flood

65/100

Jincumbilly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

80/100

The area surrounding Jincumbilly is highly susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The presence of dense vegetation increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.

Key drivers:

·Drier conditions
·Increased fuel load

increasing

Heat

70/100

Jincumbilly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

20/100

Jincumbilly is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

·Distance from the coast

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Jincumbilly

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Jincumbilly is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Jincumbilly faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Jincumbilly is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

The area surrounding Jincumbilly is highly susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The presence of dense vegetation increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.

Primary Drivers

·Drier conditions
·Increased fuel load
·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local creeks and rivers
Elevation Range: Variable, some low-lying areas
Flood Zone: Potentially affected areas near waterways

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay: RFS bushfire prone area map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019

bushfireMajor

Severe bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying areas, disrupting transportation and causing property damage.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and increased demand for emergency services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.1(+0.6)
bushfire	80	8.4(+0.4)	8.8(+0.8)
heat	70	7.6(+0.6)	8.2(+1.2)
coastal	20	2.0	2.0

By 2030, Jincumbilly is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a higher risk of bushfires and flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve building codes for bushfire resistance

Immediate

Implement stricter building codes to ensure that new and existing homes are better protected from bushfires.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate the risk of flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Jincumbilly's Climate Risk Profile

Jincumbilly, located in New South Wales, is an area that faces a number of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are bushfire risk, flooding, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity. These risks are projected to worsen with climate change, potentially impacting the livability and property values in the region.

The risk of bushfires is particularly high due to the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Climate change is expected to lead to longer fire seasons and more intense fires, posing a significant threat to homes and infrastructure.

Flooding is another major concern, with the potential for both riverine and flash flooding during heavy rainfall events. Changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change could increase the frequency and severity of floods.

Heatwaves are also becoming more common and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. The combination of high temperatures and humidity can lead to heat stress and other health problems.

Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving building codes, and implementing effective emergency management plans.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · RFS NSW · NSW Government

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Jincumbilly?

Jincumbilly faces significant risks from bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to worsen with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Jincumbilly?

Property values may be negatively impacted by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

What can I do to protect my home from bushfires?

You can improve your home's bushfire resistance by clearing vegetation around your property, installing fire-resistant building materials, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and friends.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Jincumbilly?

You can find more information about climate change in Jincumbilly from the local council, the NSW government, and the CSIRO.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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