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Climate Risk Profile: Kembla Grange, NSW

Kembla Grange, New South Wales· City of Wollongong· 2526
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Kembla Grange faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also a concern. Climate change is projected to increase the severity of these hazards, particularly flooding and heatwaves. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Kembla Grange

increasing

Flood

65/100

Kembla Grange faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Kembla Grange has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

70/100

Kembla Grange is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

15/100

Kembla Grange is located inland and has a low risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Kembla Grange

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Kembla Grange is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Kembla Grange faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

15/100

Kembla Grange is located inland and has a low risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Kembla Grange has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare a bushfire survival plan.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mullet Creek
Elevation Range
10-30 meters
Flood Zone
Partially within flood zone

Some areas of Kembla Grange are prone to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
7 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding in the Illawarra region caused significant damage to property and infrastructure.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

Bushfires in the Illawarra region threatened properties and caused evacuations.

Source
2017
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Kembla Grange and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected the Illawarra region, placing stress on vulnerable populations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire424.5(+0.3)4.7(+0.5)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal151.51.5

By 2030, Kembla Grange is projected to experience an increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwaves will also become more frequent and severe. Bushfire risk will increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement strategies to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, such as cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation and creating a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce the impact of droughts and water shortages.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Kembla Grange's Climate Risk Profile

Kembla Grange, located in the Illawarra region of New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and heatwaves resulting from rising average temperatures. Bushfire risk is also present due to the surrounding bushland.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for increased rainfall intensity leading to more frequent and severe flood events. The local council is working to improve drainage infrastructure, but further action is needed to mitigate the risk.

Heatwaves are also a growing threat, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the impact of heatwaves in built-up areas.

Bushfire risk is present due to the proximity of bushland. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · City of Wollongong

Local Government Resources

City of Wollongong

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Kembla Grange?

The main climate change risks for Kembla Grange are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Kembla Grange?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Increased insurance premiums may also affect property values.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Kembla Grange?

The City of Wollongong is implementing a range of strategies to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting water conservation.

How can I prepare my home for a flood in Kembla Grange?

You can prepare your home for a flood by raising electrical outlets, storing valuables above flood level, and having an evacuation plan.

What should I do during a heatwave in Kembla Grange?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

Where can I find information about bushfire safety in Kembla Grange?

Information about bushfire safety can be found on the NSW Rural Fire Service website.

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