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Climate Risk Profile: Keri Keri, NSW

Keri Keri, New South Wales· Unincorporated Far West
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Keri Keri faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of these events. Residents should prepare for potential disruptions and take steps to mitigate these risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.5
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Keri Keri

increasing

Flood

45/100

Keri Keri faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events. The flat terrain and limited drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Poor drainage infrastructure
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding Keri Keri is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The presence of dry vegetation increases the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

55/100

Keri Keri experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this issue.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Keri Keri is located inland and does not face significant coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Keri Keri

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Keri Keri experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heat stress for vulnerable populations. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this issue.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Keri Keri faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events. The flat terrain and limited drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Poor drainage infrastructure
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Keri Keri is located inland and does not face significant coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding Keri Keri is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The presence of dry vegetation increases the likelihood of fire ignition and spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased risk awareness.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance availability.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider heatwave preparedness.
  • 4.Review council climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ephemeral creeks
Elevation Range
Relatively flat
Flood Zone
Limited data available

Due to the unincorporated status, detailed flood mapping is not readily available. Reliance on SES and general awareness is crucial.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to sparse vegetation
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain fire breaks and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
35°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves can pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations. Ensure adequate hydration and access to cooling.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
500 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in the region, impacting infrastructure and agriculture.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Severe bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and environmental harm.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable populations.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Localized flooding due to heavy rainfall, causing minor disruptions.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.2(+0.7)
bushfire606.3(+0.3)6.8(+0.8)
heat555.8(+0.3)6.4(+0.9)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Keri Keri is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with higher temperatures, more intense rainfall events, and increased bushfire risk. Coastal risks remain minimal.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, including vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Keri Keri's Climate Risk Profile

Keri Keri, located in the Far West region of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to heavy rainfall, bushfires during dry seasons, and heatwaves in summer.

Flooding is a concern due to the flat terrain and limited drainage infrastructure. Intense rainfall events can overwhelm the existing systems, leading to localized flooding. Bushfires pose a significant threat, especially during periods of drought and high temperatures. The surrounding vegetation provides ample fuel for fires to spread rapidly.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, impacting the health and well-being of residents, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The lack of coastal influence means that Keri Keri does not benefit from moderating sea breezes.

Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks, with increased rainfall intensity, higher temperatures, and prolonged dry periods. This will require proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and infrastructure.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Unincorporated Far West

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Keri Keri?

The main climate risks include flooding from heavy rainfall, bushfires during dry periods, and heatwaves in summer.

How is climate change expected to impact Keri Keri?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including floods, bushfires, and heatwaves.

What can residents do to prepare for climate risks?

Residents can take steps to prepare for climate risks by improving drainage around their homes, maintaining fire breaks, and developing a heatwave preparedness plan.

Are there any local government initiatives to address climate change?

As an unincorporated area, specific local government initiatives are limited. Residents should rely on state government resources and emergency services.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Keri Keri?

You can find more information about climate risks from the NSW State Emergency Service, the NSW Rural Fire Service, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

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