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Climate Risk in Killcare, NSW

Killcare, New South Wales· Central Coast· 2257
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Killcare is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks. The primary concerns are flooding and bushfires, with increasing trends due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
3.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Killcare

increasing

Flood

65/100

Killcare faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to localised flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Killcare has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

40/100

Killcare experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

30/100

Killcare faces a low coastal risk, primarily from sea level rise and potential erosion. The impact is relatively less compared to other hazards.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Killcare

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Killcare experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Killcare faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to localised flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

30/100

Killcare faces a low coastal risk, primarily from sea level rise and potential erosion. The impact is relatively less compared to other hazards.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Killcare has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Cockrone Lagoon
Elevation Range
0-50 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal and riverine floodplains

Low-lying areas near Cockrone Lagoon are particularly susceptible to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Bouddi National Park
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and northern parts of Killcare are designated as bushfire-prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents and those with chronic health conditions are most vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are at risk from sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along Killcare Beach.

Historical Climate Events

2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localised flooding in low-lying areas of Killcare.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region threatened Killcare, with residents placed on alert.

Source
2017
stormMinor

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in Killcare.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in Bouddi National Park resulted in evacuations in Killcare.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
heat404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
coastal303.1(+0.1)3.3(+0.3)

By 2030, Killcare is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and bushfire risk due to more extreme weather events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan, including hazard reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Establish a heatwave early warning system and provide support for vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Erosion Monitoring

Long-term

Implement a long-term coastal erosion monitoring program and develop strategies to protect beachfront properties and infrastructure.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Killcare's Climate Risk Profile

Killcare, located on the Central Coast of New South Wales, is a beautiful coastal suburb known for its beaches and natural surroundings. However, like many areas in Australia, Killcare is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The suburb faces a moderate risk of flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. The risk is exacerbated by rising sea levels and potential storm surges. Bushfire risk is also significant, given the proximity to extensive bushland areas. Hotter and drier conditions increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Coastal erosion is a long-term concern, with the potential to impact beachfront properties and infrastructure.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slowing down the rate of climate change. Local adaptation measures, such as improved drainage systems and bushfire management plans, are also essential to protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Central Coast Council · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Central Coast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Killcare?

The main climate change risks in Killcare are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for a bushfire?

You can prepare your property for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your home, installing a sprinkler system, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on elderly neighbours and vulnerable residents.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Killcare?

You can find information about flood risks in Killcare on the Central Coast Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

Is climate change going to affect my insurance premiums?

Yes, it is likely that climate change will lead to increased insurance premiums in Killcare, particularly for properties in high-risk areas.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Central Coast Council is developing and implementing a climate change strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

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