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Climate Risk in Koonawarra, NSW

Koonawarra, New South Wales· City of Wollongong· 2502
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Koonawarra is a suburb in the City of Wollongong, NSW, that faces moderate climate risks. The primary concerns are flooding from Lake Illawarra and creeks, increasing heatwaves, and potential coastal impacts from sea level rise. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Koonawarra

increasing

Flood

65/100

Koonawarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Lake Illawarra and several creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
stable

Bushfire

42/100

Bushfire risk in Koonawarra is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of fire spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Heat

70/100

Koonawarra is experiencing an increasing number of hot days and heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

55/100

Koonawarra faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to Lake Illawarra. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Koonawarra

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Koonawarra is experiencing an increasing number of hot days and heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Koonawarra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Lake Illawarra and several creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

55/100

Koonawarra faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to Lake Illawarra. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Bushfire risk in Koonawarra is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of fire spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise.
  • 4.Obtain a building inspection report.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Illawarra, Mullet Creek
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near Lake Illawarra and Mullet Creek are designated flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties in low-lying areas of Koonawarra. Council flood studies provide detailed information on flood risk and potential mitigation measures.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Some properties border bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
NSW Rural Fire Service bushfire prone land map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents in bushfire-prone areas should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near Lake Illawarra are susceptible to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some foreshore areas are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Illawarra region, impacting low-lying areas of Koonawarra.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

Bushfire near Koonawarra, posing a threat to properties bordering bushland.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storm caused flash flooding and damage to properties in Koonawarra.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted the Illawarra region, with record high temperatures recorded.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire424.5(+0.3)4.8(+0.6)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal555.9(+0.4)6.3(+0.8)

By 2030, Koonawarra is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves and flooding. Sea level rise will also pose a growing threat to coastal areas.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure to increase capacity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert vulnerable populations and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Prepare your property for bushfire season by clearing gutters, trimming trees, and creating a firebreak.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Koonawarra's Climate Risk Profile

Koonawarra, located in the City of Wollongong, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. Its proximity to Lake Illawarra and several waterways makes it vulnerable to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, with more intense rainfall events predicted for the region.

The suburb also faces increasing heatwave frequency and intensity. Rising temperatures pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban environment can further amplify the heat island effect, making conditions even more challenging.

Coastal hazards are another concern for Koonawarra. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to inundation of low-lying areas and increased erosion along the lake foreshore. Planning and adaptation measures are crucial to mitigate these risks and protect coastal assets.

Bushfire risk is present, especially in areas bordering bushland. While not as severe as other hazards, residents should remain vigilant and prepared for potential fire threats, particularly during dry periods. Implementing appropriate fire safety measures and maintaining vegetation around properties can help reduce the risk of fire damage.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW Rural Fire Service · City of Wollongong

Local Government Resources

City of Wollongong

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Koonawarra?

The main climate change risks in Koonawarra are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards.

How will climate change affect property values in Koonawarra?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased climate risks.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Koonawarra?

The City of Wollongong is implementing a range of measures to address climate change, including upgrading stormwater drainage, developing a heatwave early warning system, and protecting coastal areas.

How can I prepare my home for a flood in Koonawarra?

You can prepare your home for a flood by raising electrical outlets, installing flood barriers, and having an emergency plan.

What should I do during a heatwave in Koonawarra?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned buildings, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

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