Climate Risk in Lacmalac, New South Wales

Lacmalac, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Lacmalac faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lacmalac

increasing

Flood

60/100

Lacmalac faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area around Lacmalac has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

40/100

Lacmalac experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures expected. This could lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Lacmalac is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lacmalac

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Lacmalac experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures expected. This could lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Lacmalac faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Proximity to waterways
·Low-lying areas

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Lacmalac is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area around Lacmalac has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage limitations.
4.Consider long-term climate change projections when making investment decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Tumut River
Elevation Range: 250-300m
Flood Zone: Potentially affected

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2012

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Tumut River to flood, impacting low-lying areas in and around Lacmalac.

Source

2019

bushfireMajor

The Dunns Road fire impacted the region, causing significant smoke haze and posing a threat to nearby communities.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in high temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	70	7.5(+0.5)	8.0(+1.0)
heat	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.7(+0.7)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Lacmalac is projected to experience a moderate increase in flood and bushfire risk due to changing climate patterns. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs and support residents in preparing their properties for bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Sustainable Land Management

Long-term

Promote sustainable land management practices to reduce erosion and improve water quality.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Lacmalac's Climate Risk Profile

Lacmalac, NSW, is an area that will likely experience increased climate-related challenges in the coming decades. The primary concerns are related to flooding and bushfire risks, both of which are projected to worsen due to climate change.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the area's proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity, a direct consequence of climate change, will likely lead to more frequent and severe flood events. Residents and property owners should be aware of the potential for property damage and disruption to daily life.

Bushfire risk is also high, with the surrounding bushland creating a substantial threat. Drier conditions and higher temperatures, driven by climate change, will extend the bushfire season and increase the intensity of fires. Preparedness and vigilance are crucial for mitigating this risk.

While heat risk is moderate, rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves will impact the community. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, will be particularly at risk.

Coastal risks are minimal for Lacmalac, but the broader regional impacts of climate change should still be considered.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Lacmalac?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense bushfires, and more severe heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Lacmalac?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased insurance costs and potential damage from extreme weather events.

What can I do to prepare my home for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your home, install fire-resistant materials, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Lacmalac?

You can find flood maps and information on the NSW Government and local council websites.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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