Climate Risk Profile: Lake Burrendong, NSW

Lake Burrendong, New South Wales· Mid-Western Regional
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Lake Burrendong faces significant climate risks, primarily from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.5
Bushfire
6.8
Heat
6.3
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lake Burrendong

increasing

Flood

85/100

Lake Burrendong is at high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Burrendong Dam and the Macquarie River. Heavy rainfall events can lead to rapid increases in water levels, inundating low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Dam capacity exceeded
increasing

Bushfire

68/100

The area surrounding Lake Burrendong is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry periods. The presence of extensive bushland increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
increasing

Heat

63/100

Lake Burrendong experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense heat events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Lake Burrendong is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lake Burrendong

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

63/100

Lake Burrendong experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense heat events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.7

2050

7.1

Data source

flood Risk

85/100

Lake Burrendong is at high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Burrendong Dam and the Macquarie River. Heavy rainfall events can lead to rapid increases in water levels, inundating low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Dam capacity exceeded
  • ·Changes in land use

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Lake Burrendong is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

68/100

The area surrounding Lake Burrendong is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry periods. The presence of extensive bushland increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme heat.
  • 3.Obtain comprehensive insurance coverage.
  • 4.Implement measures to mitigate flood and bushfire risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Macquarie River
Elevation Range
250-300m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Macquarie River and Burrendong Dam

Burrendong Dam is a major water storage facility, but its capacity can be exceeded during extreme rainfall events, leading to downstream flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to extensive bushland areas
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The region experiences several days above 35°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
350 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodMajor

Major flooding along the Macquarie River impacted Lake Burrendong and surrounding areas, causing significant damage to infrastructure and properties.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires near Lake Burrendong threatened properties and required extensive firefighting efforts.

Source
2017
floodModerate

Moderate flooding along the Macquarie River caused minor damage to properties and infrastructure.

Source
2019
droughtMajor

Severe drought conditions impacted water levels in Lake Burrendong and surrounding agricultural areas.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused moderate flooding in low-lying areas around Lake Burrendong.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood858.8(+0.3)9.2(+0.7)
bushfire687.2(+0.4)7.6(+0.8)
heat636.5(+0.2)6.8(+0.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Lake Burrendong is projected to experience an increase in flood and bushfire risk due to more intense rainfall events and drier conditions. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and severe.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect properties from flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Immediate

Reduce fuel loads around properties and implement community fire management plans.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Implement measures to conserve water resources and manage drought conditions.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Lake Burrendong's Climate Risk Profile

Lake Burrendong, located in the Mid-Western Regional Council of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related hazards. The most prominent risk is flooding, given its proximity to the Burrendong Dam and the Macquarie River. Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm the dam's capacity, leading to downstream flooding that affects residential and agricultural areas.

Bushfire risk is also a major concern, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for fires, and strong winds can quickly spread flames, threatening properties and lives. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, with longer and more intense fire seasons.

Heatwaves are another significant hazard, with temperatures often exceeding 40°C during summer. These extreme heat events can cause heat stress, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase in the future.

While Lake Burrendong is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, could still affect the community. It is crucial for residents and local authorities to take proactive measures to mitigate these risks and adapt to the changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Mid-Western Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Lake Burrendong?

The main climate change risks for Lake Burrendong are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Lake Burrendong?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts, particularly those vulnerable to flooding and bushfires.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change?

Residents can take steps to reduce their vulnerability to climate change, such as implementing bushfire protection measures, improving flood defenses, and conserving water resources.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The Mid-Western Regional Council is developing and implementing climate change strategies to mitigate risks and adapt to the changing climate.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Lake Burrendong?

You can find more information about climate change risks from the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, and the Mid-Western Regional Council.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections