Climate Risk Profile: Lake Burrendong, NSW
Lake Burrendong faces significant climate risks, primarily from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lake Burrendong
Flood
Lake Burrendong is at high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Burrendong Dam and the Macquarie River. Heavy rainfall events can lead to rapid increases in water levels, inundating low-lying areas.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Dam capacity exceeded
Bushfire
The area surrounding Lake Burrendong is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry periods. The presence of extensive bushland increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.
Key drivers:
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
Heat
Lake Burrendong experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense heat events.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Coastal
Lake Burrendong is not exposed to coastal risks.
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lake Burrendong
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Lake Burrendong experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to more frequent and intense heat events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.7
2050
7.1
flood Risk
Lake Burrendong is at high risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Burrendong Dam and the Macquarie River. Heavy rainfall events can lead to rapid increases in water levels, inundating low-lying areas.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Dam capacity exceeded
- ·Changes in land use
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
8.8
2050
9.2
coastal Risk
Lake Burrendong is not exposed to coastal risks.
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The area surrounding Lake Burrendong is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during hot and dry periods. The presence of extensive bushland increases the risk of fire ignition and spread.
Primary Drivers
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
- ·Higher temperatures
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.2
2050
7.8
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of flooding and bushfires.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme heat.
- 3.Obtain comprehensive insurance coverage.
- 4.Implement measures to mitigate flood and bushfire risks.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Macquarie River
- Elevation Range
- 250-300m
- Flood Zone
- Areas adjacent to the Macquarie River and Burrendong Dam
Burrendong Dam is a major water storage facility, but its capacity can be exceeded during extreme rainfall events, leading to downstream flooding.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to extensive bushland areas
- Planning Overlay
- https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The area is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards and vegetation management practices.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 33.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 5 days
The region experiences several days above 35°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 350 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Major flooding along the Macquarie River impacted Lake Burrendong and surrounding areas, causing significant damage to infrastructure and properties.
SourceBushfires near Lake Burrendong threatened properties and required extensive firefighting efforts.
SourceModerate flooding along the Macquarie River caused minor damage to properties and infrastructure.
SourceSevere drought conditions impacted water levels in Lake Burrendong and surrounding agricultural areas.
SourceHeavy rainfall caused moderate flooding in low-lying areas around Lake Burrendong.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 85 | 8.8(+0.3) | 9.2(+0.7) |
| bushfire | 68 | 7.2(+0.4) | 7.6(+0.8) |
| heat | 63 | 6.5(+0.2) | 6.8(+0.5) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Lake Burrendong is projected to experience an increase in flood and bushfire risk due to more intense rainfall events and drier conditions. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and severe.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Upgrade flood defenses
Near-termInvest in infrastructure to protect properties from flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement bushfire management strategies
ImmediateReduce fuel loads around properties and implement community fire management plans.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a heatwave response plan
Near-termEstablish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termImplement measures to conserve water resources and manage drought conditions.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Lake Burrendong's Climate Risk Profile
Lake Burrendong, located in the Mid-Western Regional Council of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related hazards. The most prominent risk is flooding, given its proximity to the Burrendong Dam and the Macquarie River. Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm the dam's capacity, leading to downstream flooding that affects residential and agricultural areas.
Bushfire risk is also a major concern, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for fires, and strong winds can quickly spread flames, threatening properties and lives. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these conditions, with longer and more intense fire seasons.
Heatwaves are another significant hazard, with temperatures often exceeding 40°C during summer. These extreme heat events can cause heat stress, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase in the future.
While Lake Burrendong is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, could still affect the community. It is crucial for residents and local authorities to take proactive measures to mitigate these risks and adapt to the changing climate.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Mid-Western Regional Council
Local Government Resources
Mid-Western Regional Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Lake Burrendong?
The main climate change risks for Lake Burrendong are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.
How will climate change affect property values in Lake Burrendong?
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts, particularly those vulnerable to flooding and bushfires.
What can residents do to prepare for climate change?
Residents can take steps to reduce their vulnerability to climate change, such as implementing bushfire protection measures, improving flood defenses, and conserving water resources.
What is the local council doing to address climate change?
The Mid-Western Regional Council is developing and implementing climate change strategies to mitigate risks and adapt to the changing climate.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Lake Burrendong?
You can find more information about climate change risks from the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, and the Mid-Western Regional Council.
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