Climate Risk in Larnook, New South Wales

Larnook, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Larnook faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

N/A

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Larnook

increasing

Flood

45/100

Larnook faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location and rainfall patterns. Local waterways and inadequate drainage can contribute to potential flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The bushfire risk in Larnook is relatively high due to the proximity of bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Dry vegetation

increasing

Heat

50/100

Larnook experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

0/100

Larnook is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Larnook

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Larnook experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Larnook faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location and rainfall patterns. Local waterways and inadequate drainage can contribute to potential flood events.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

0/100

Larnook is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

0.0

2050

0.0

bushfire Risk

60/100

The bushfire risk in Larnook is relatively high due to the proximity of bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Dry vegetation
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
4.Develop an emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range: Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone: Potentially affected areas near waterways

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay: Check with NSW RFS for specific bushfire prone areas
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 31°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Significant rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of the region.

Source

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Larnook, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

2020

bushfireMajor

Widespread bushfires affected the region, causing significant environmental damage and property loss.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	5.0(+0.5)	5.5(+1.0)
bushfire	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
heat	50	5.5(+0.5)	6.0(+1.0)
coastal	0	0.0	0.0

By 2030, Larnook is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as controlled burns and vegetation management, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct community education programs to raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Larnook's Climate Risk Profile

Larnook, NSW, is a suburb that faces a number of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are flooding, bushfires, and increasing temperatures. These risks are projected to intensify due to climate change, potentially impacting property values and community well-being.

Flooding is a significant concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential for inadequate drainage. Bushfire risk is elevated due to the proximity of bushland areas, which can become highly flammable during dry periods. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a threat to vulnerable populations.

Understanding these risks is crucial for residents and property owners in Larnook. Taking proactive measures to mitigate these risks can help protect homes, businesses, and the community as a whole. This includes preparing for emergencies, maintaining properties, and advocating for improved infrastructure.

Future climate projections indicate that these risks will continue to grow. By 2030 and 2050, Larnook is expected to experience more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Adapting to these changes will require a collaborative effort from residents, local government, and emergency services.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Larnook?

The main climate risks in Larnook are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Larnook?

Property values in Larnook may be affected by the increased risk of flooding and bushfires. Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decline in value.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding?

You can protect your home from flooding by improving drainage around your property, installing flood barriers, and obtaining flood insurance.

How can I prepare for a bushfire?

You can prepare for a bushfire by creating a bushfire survival plan, maintaining firebreaks around your property, and having an emergency kit ready.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on elderly and vulnerable neighbors.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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