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Climate Risk in Lawrence, NSW

Lawrence, New South Wales· Clarence Valley· 2460
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Lawrence, NSW, faces a medium climate risk, primarily due to flooding and heatwaves. The risk is projected to increase in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lawrence

increasing

Flood

70/100

Lawrence is located near the Clarence River and is susceptible to flooding, particularly during heavy rainfall events. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Lawrence has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hot, dry conditions can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Lawrence experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Lawrence is located inland and has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lawrence

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Lawrence experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

70/100

Lawrence is located near the Clarence River and is susceptible to flooding, particularly during heavy rainfall events. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Lawrence is located inland and has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Lawrence has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hot, dry conditions can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess property's elevation and drainage.
  • 3.Inquire about council's flood mitigation plans.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.
  • 5.Consider heatwave preparedness measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Clarence River
Elevation Range
5-10m
Flood Zone
Yes

The Clarence River has a history of flooding, impacting low-lying areas of Lawrence.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas surrounding Lawrence are designated as bushfire-prone, requiring adherence to building codes and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Lawrence experiences several days above 35°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

The Clarence River experienced moderate flooding, impacting low-lying areas of Lawrence.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding region caused smoky conditions and increased fire risk in Lawrence.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Lawrence experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several days.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Major flooding along the Clarence River inundated parts of Lawrence, causing significant damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.8(+0.8)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Lawrence is projected to experience increased flooding and more frequent heatwaves under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in levees and drainage systems to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide heatwave awareness programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Near-term

Update building codes to incorporate climate resilience measures.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Implement community education programs on climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Lawrence's Climate Risk Profile

Lawrence, located in the Clarence Valley of New South Wales, is a suburb that faces increasing climate-related challenges. The primary risks are associated with flooding from the Clarence River and the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

The suburb's proximity to the Clarence River makes it vulnerable to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, with projections indicating more intense rainfall events and potential sea level rise affecting riverine flooding.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Lawrence. As temperatures rise, the risk of heat stress and related health issues increases, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The impact of heatwaves can be amplified by the urban heat island effect.

While bushfire risk is present due to surrounding vegetation, it is not as significant as the flood and heatwave risks. However, residents should still be aware of bushfire safety measures and preparedness.

Adapting to these climate risks will require a combination of individual actions, community initiatives, and government policies. This includes measures to reduce flood risk, improve heatwave preparedness, and enhance bushfire safety.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Clarence Valley Council

Local Government Resources

Clarence Valley Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Lawrence?

The main climate risks in Lawrence are flooding from the Clarence River and increasing heatwaves.

How is the council addressing flood risk?

The Clarence Valley Council is investing in flood mitigation measures and providing flood information to residents.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Are there any community initiatives to address climate change?

The Clarence Valley Council supports various community initiatives focused on sustainability and climate resilience.

Where can I find more information about climate projections for Lawrence?

Climate projections for Lawrence can be found on the CSIRO website and through the Clarence Valley Council's environmental reports.

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