Climate Risk in Little Forest, NSW

Little Forest, New South Wales· Shoalhaven· 2538
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Little Forest, NSW, faces moderate climate risks, primarily from bushfires and flooding. The risk is projected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Little Forest

increasing

Flood

60/100

Little Forest faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local topography
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Little Forest is at a high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk, which is projected to worsen with climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Hot and dry conditions
increasing

Heat

40/100

Little Forest experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Little Forest is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion due to its inland location. The risk is minimal.

Key drivers:

  • ·Inland location
  • ·No direct coastal exposure
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Little Forest

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Little Forest experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Little Forest faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. The risk is expected to increase with climate change due to more intense rainfall.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local topography
  • ·Creek overflow

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Little Forest is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion due to its inland location. The risk is minimal.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Inland location
  • ·No direct coastal exposure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Little Forest is at a high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk, which is projected to worsen with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Hot and dry conditions
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood and bushfire risk maps.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop an emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Endrick River
Elevation Range
150-250m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

The Endrick River and smaller creeks in the area can overflow during heavy rainfall, causing localized flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is surrounded by dense bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires spreading to properties.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average maximum temperatures in January are increasing, with more frequent heatwave conditions.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2019
bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires significantly impacted the region, with widespread property damage and evacuations.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas, disrupting transport and damaging property.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Little Forest threatened properties, requiring firefighting efforts and evacuations.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Significant flooding event impacted the Shoalhaven region, including Little Forest, causing road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Little Forest is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood, bushfire, and heat risks. More intense rainfall and prolonged dry periods are expected.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Mitigation Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in drainage upgrades and flood barriers to reduce the impact of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Hazard Reduction Programs

Immediate

Conduct regular hazard reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a Community Heatwave Plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through rainwater harvesting and efficient irrigation practices.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to require fire-resistant materials and flood-proofing measures for new constructions.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Little Forest's Climate Risk Profile

Little Forest is a rural suburb in the Shoalhaven region of New South Wales. The area is characterized by its natural bushland and proximity to waterways, making it vulnerable to both bushfires and flooding.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, with projections indicating more intense rainfall events and prolonged periods of hot, dry weather. This will likely lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of bushfires and floods, impacting property and infrastructure.

The local council and emergency services are working to mitigate these risks through various strategies, including hazard reduction burns, flood mitigation infrastructure, and community awareness programs. However, individual preparedness is also crucial.

Residents are encouraged to develop emergency plans, maintain their properties to reduce fire risk, and stay informed about weather warnings and emergency alerts. Adapting to the changing climate is essential to ensure the long-term resilience of Little Forest.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Shoalhaven City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Little Forest?

The main climate risks in Little Forest are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a flood?

During a flood, you should move to higher ground, avoid driving through floodwaters, and follow the instructions of emergency services.

Where can I find information about emergency alerts?

You can find information about emergency alerts on the NSW State Emergency Service website and through local media outlets.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Shoalhaven City Council is implementing various strategies to mitigate climate change risks, including hazard reduction burns, flood mitigation infrastructure, and community awareness programs.

Will climate change affect my insurance premiums in Little Forest?

Yes, it is likely that insurance premiums will increase due to the elevated risk of bushfires and floods associated with climate change.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections