Climate Risk Profile: Little Jacks Creek, NSW

Little Jacks Creek, New South Wales
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Little Jacks Creek faces increasing risks from bushfires, floods and heatwaves due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
8.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Little Jacks Creek

increasing

Flood

65/100

Little Jacks Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow
increasing

Bushfire

80/100

Little Jacks Creek has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland and prevailing dry conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Little Jacks Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Little Jacks Creek is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Little Jacks Creek

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Little Jacks Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Little Jacks Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Little Jacks Creek is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

80/100

Little Jacks Creek has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland and prevailing dry conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme weather events

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range
200-250m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Local creek can overflow during heavy rainfall.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone due to surrounding vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent in summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

A large bushfire threatened the suburb, causing evacuations.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of heavy rain.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire808.4(+0.4)8.8(+0.8)
heat606.6(+0.6)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Little Jacks Creek is projected to experience increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves and bushfires. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, leading to higher flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around properties, develop a bushfire survival plan, and ensure access to water for firefighting.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Flood Resilience

Near-term

Install flood barriers, improve drainage systems, and raise electrical components above flood levels.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers, provide support to vulnerable populations, and promote water conservation.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Invest in Climate-Resilient Infrastructure

Long-term

Upgrade roads, bridges, and other infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Little Jacks Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Little Jacks Creek, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.

Bushfire risk is particularly high due to the suburb's proximity to bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures increase the likelihood of bushfires, posing a threat to property and lives. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Flooding is another significant concern, with heavy rainfall events potentially leading to flash flooding and riverine flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall, further elevating flood risk. Infrastructure improvements and better drainage systems are needed to mitigate this risk.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. Ensuring access to cooling centers and providing support to those at risk are crucial adaptation measures.

Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from residents, local government, and state agencies. Implementing adaptation strategies and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are essential to protecting Little Jacks Creek from the worst impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Little Jacks Creek?

The main risks are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves, which are expected to become more frequent and intense due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your property, develop a bushfire survival plan, and ensure you have access to water for firefighting.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

Check the council's flood maps and the SES website for information about flood-prone areas and emergency procedures.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council is developing a climate strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement adaptation measures to protect the community from climate risks.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Little Jacks Creek, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Little Jacks Creek's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections