Climate Risk Profile: Long Plain, NSW
Long Plain faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Long Plain
Flood
Long Plain faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Changes in land use
Bushfire
The risk of bushfire in Long Plain is moderate, given the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer months. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can exacerbate this risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Long Plain is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
As an inland suburb, Long Plain has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from the coast
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Long Plain
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Long Plain is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
flood Risk
Long Plain faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Changes in land use
- ·Aging infrastructure
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
As an inland suburb, Long Plain has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from the coast
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The risk of bushfire in Long Plain is moderate, given the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer months. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Fuel load
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.7
2050
5.2
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.
Price Impact
Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
- 4.Consider long-term climate projections for the area.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Local Creeks
- Elevation Range
- Varies, some low-lying areas
- Flood Zone
- Potentially affected areas near creeks
Historical flood data indicates past events have impacted properties near the local creeks.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to bushland areas
- Planning Overlay
- Check NSW RFS website
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 32.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the future.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 200 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting low-lying areas and causing property damage.
SourceBushfires impacted areas near Long Plain, requiring evacuations and causing property loss.
SourceA prolonged heatwave affected the region, leading to heat stress and increased hospital admissions.
SourceProlonged drought conditions impacted agricultural activities and water resources in the region.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 65 | 6.8(+0.3) | 7.1(+0.6) |
| bushfire | 42 | 4.4(+0.2) | 4.7(+0.5) |
| heat | 70 | 7.7(+0.7) | 8.5(+1.5) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Long Plain is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termUpgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood control measures to reduce the impact of flooding.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness
Near-termImplement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and community education programs.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreHeatwave Action Plan
ImmediateDevelop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreWater Conservation
Long-termPromote water conservation measures to ensure a sustainable water supply during periods of drought.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Long Plain's Climate Risk Profile
Long Plain, NSW, is a rural locality that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns for this area are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.
Flooding is a significant threat due to the presence of waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to both riverine and flash flooding, potentially damaging property and infrastructure. Climate projections indicate that rainfall intensity will increase, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events.
Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding vegetation provides ample fuel for fires, and rising temperatures and drier conditions can increase the likelihood of ignition and spread. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have a plan in place.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. The elderly, children, and those with chronic health conditions are particularly susceptible to heat stress. It is important to stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool environments, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.
While Long Plain is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources, can still affect the community. Taking proactive steps to adapt to climate change is essential to protect the well-being and prosperity of Long Plain.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · NSW Department of Planning and Environment
Local Government Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Long Plain?
The main climate change risks for Long Plain are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.
How will climate change affect property values in Long Plain?
Climate change may negatively impact property values in Long Plain due to increased risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Properties in high-risk areas may experience a greater decline in value.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Long Plain?
To prepare for heatwaves, stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool environments, check on vulnerable neighbors, and follow the advice of health authorities.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Long Plain?
Information about flood risks in Long Plain can be found on the local council's website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Long Plain?
The council is developing and implementing a climate strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Specific initiatives may include improving drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and implementing bushfire management strategies.
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