Climate Risk Profile: Long Plain, NSW

Long Plain, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Long Plain faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Long Plain

increasing

Flood

65/100

Long Plain faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The risk of bushfire in Long Plain is moderate, given the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer months. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Long Plain is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

As an inland suburb, Long Plain has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Long Plain

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Long Plain is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Long Plain faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As an inland suburb, Long Plain has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The risk of bushfire in Long Plain is moderate, given the surrounding vegetation and dry conditions during summer months. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections for the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creeks
Elevation Range
Varies, some low-lying areas
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near creeks

Historical flood data indicates past events have impacted properties near the local creeks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the future.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
200 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting low-lying areas and causing property damage.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Long Plain, requiring evacuations and causing property loss.

Source
2017
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, leading to heat stress and increased hospital admissions.

Source
2019
droughtModerate

Prolonged drought conditions impacted agricultural activities and water resources in the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Long Plain is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood control measures to reduce the impact of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to ensure a sustainable water supply during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Long Plain's Climate Risk Profile

Long Plain, NSW, is a rural locality that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns for this area are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant threat due to the presence of waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to both riverine and flash flooding, potentially damaging property and infrastructure. Climate projections indicate that rainfall intensity will increase, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly during the dry summer months. The surrounding vegetation provides ample fuel for fires, and rising temperatures and drier conditions can increase the likelihood of ignition and spread. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have a plan in place.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. The elderly, children, and those with chronic health conditions are particularly susceptible to heat stress. It is important to stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool environments, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.

While Long Plain is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources, can still affect the community. Taking proactive steps to adapt to climate change is essential to protect the well-being and prosperity of Long Plain.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Long Plain?

The main climate change risks for Long Plain are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Long Plain?

Climate change may negatively impact property values in Long Plain due to increased risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Properties in high-risk areas may experience a greater decline in value.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Long Plain?

To prepare for heatwaves, stay hydrated, seek shelter in cool environments, check on vulnerable neighbors, and follow the advice of health authorities.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Long Plain?

Information about flood risks in Long Plain can be found on the local council's website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Long Plain?

The council is developing and implementing a climate strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Specific initiatives may include improving drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and implementing bushfire management strategies.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections