Climate Risk Profile: Lord Howe Island, NSW

Lord Howe Island, New South Wales· Lord Howe Island Board

Low Risk

Updated May 2026

Lord Howe Island faces relatively low climate risks compared to mainland Australia. The primary concerns are related to increasing temperatures, potential for coastal erosion, and changes in rainfall patterns. Proactive adaptation measures can help protect the island's unique environment and community.

Overall Risk Score

25/100

Low

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

3.0

Bushfire

1.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lord Howe Island

stable

Flood

30/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall events, particularly in low-lying areas. The island's topography and drainage systems influence flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Heavy rainfall
·Topography

stable

Bushfire

10/100

Bushfire risk is low due to the island's isolation and vegetation type. However, dry conditions can increase the potential for small-scale fires.

Key drivers:

·Dry conditions
·Vegetation type

increasing

Heat

40/100

Heatwaves are infrequent, but rising average temperatures may lead to increased heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Climate change

increasing

Coastal

20/100

Coastal erosion and sea-level rise pose a threat to low-lying coastal areas and infrastructure. The island's unique ecosystem is vulnerable to these changes.

Key drivers:

·Sea-level rise
·Storm surges

stable

Wind

16/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

22/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

12/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

20/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lord Howe Island

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Heatwaves are infrequent, but rising average temperatures may lead to increased heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Climate change
·Humidity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

30/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall events, particularly in low-lying areas. The island's topography and drainage systems influence flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Heavy rainfall
·Topography
·Drainage capacity

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Coastal erosion and sea-level rise pose a threat to low-lying coastal areas and infrastructure. The island's unique ecosystem is vulnerable to these changes.

Primary Drivers

·Sea-level rise
·Storm surges
·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.3

2050

2.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

10/100

Bushfire risk is low due to the island's isolation and vegetation type. However, dry conditions can increase the potential for small-scale fires.

Primary Drivers

·Dry conditions
·Vegetation type
·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

1.1

2050

1.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance coverage is generally available, but premiums may increase in the future due to climate change risks.

Price Impact

Climate change may have a moderate impact on property values in the long term.

Buyer Checklist

1.Assess flood risk for low-lying properties
2.Consider potential impacts of sea-level rise on coastal properties
3.Inquire about insurance coverage for climate-related risks
4.Check for erosion risk near coastal areas

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Numerous small creeks and drainage channels
Elevation Range: 0-875m (Mount Gower)
Flood Zone: Localized areas near creeks and low-lying areas

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Island is largely covered in native vegetation
Planning Overlay: Not designated as a high-risk bushfire area
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 25°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 0.5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 0 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise
Erosion Risk: Some coastal areas are experiencing erosion

Historical Climate Events

2011

stormModerate

A severe storm caused minor damage to infrastructure and vegetation on the island.

Source

2017

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source

2020

heatwaveMinor

A brief heatwave caused discomfort for residents and visitors.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	30	3.1(+0.1)	3.2(+0.2)
bushfire	10	1.1(+0.1)	1.1(+0.1)
heat	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.6(+0.6)
coastal	20	2.1(+0.1)	2.3(+0.3)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Lord Howe Island is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by rising temperatures and sea levels.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve water management practices

Near-term

Implement water conservation measures and explore alternative water sources to ensure water security during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate the impacts of sea-level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Control invasive species

Immediate

Implement programs to control and eradicate invasive species that threaten the island's unique ecosystem.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote sustainable tourism

Near-term

Encourage sustainable tourism practices to minimize the environmental impact of tourism and protect the island's natural resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Lord Howe Island's Climate Risk Profile

Lord Howe Island, a UNESCO World Heritage site, is known for its unique biodiversity and natural beauty. While the island experiences a relatively mild climate, it is still vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Rising average temperatures may lead to increased heat stress, particularly during the summer months. Changes in rainfall patterns could affect water availability and agricultural practices. Coastal erosion and sea-level rise pose a threat to low-lying areas and infrastructure.

The island's unique ecosystem is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Changes in ocean temperatures and acidity could affect marine life and coral reefs. Invasive species, exacerbated by climate change, could further threaten native flora and fauna.

Adaptation measures are crucial to protect Lord Howe Island from the impacts of climate change. These may include improving water management practices, protecting coastal areas, and controlling invasive species. Community engagement and education are also essential to build resilience and promote sustainable practices.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Lord Howe Island Board

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Lord Howe Island?

The main climate change risks for Lord Howe Island include rising temperatures, sea-level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and potential for more intense storms.

How will rising sea levels affect Lord Howe Island?

Rising sea levels could lead to coastal erosion, inundation of low-lying areas, and damage to infrastructure and ecosystems.

What is the Lord Howe Island Board doing to address climate change?

The Lord Howe Island Board is implementing various measures to address climate change, including improving water management practices, protecting coastal areas, and controlling invasive species.

How can residents and visitors help protect Lord Howe Island from climate change?

Residents and visitors can help by conserving water, reducing their carbon footprint, supporting sustainable tourism practices, and participating in community initiatives.

Where can I find more information about climate change on Lord Howe Island?

You can find more information about climate change on the Lord Howe Island Board website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website, and the CSIRO website.

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