Climate Risk Profile: Lurnea, NSW

Lurnea, New South Wales· Liverpool· 2170
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Lurnea faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, posing challenges for residents and infrastructure.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Lurnea

increasing

Flood

65/100

Lurnea faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Lurnea has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Lurnea is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Lurnea is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Lurnea

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Lurnea is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Lurnea faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Lurnea is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Lurnea has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Georges River
Elevation Range
10-30 meters
Flood Zone
Partially within flood zone

Some areas near the Georges River are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Bushfire prone area
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk during bushfire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate heatwave conditions in Lurnea.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding in the Liverpool area affected Lurnea, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in surrounding areas caused smoke haze and elevated fire danger in Lurnea.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Lurnea is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and increased flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Immediate

Reduce fuel loads around properties and improve bushfire preparedness.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Lurnea's Climate Risk Profile

Lurnea, located in the Liverpool region of New South Wales, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its vulnerability to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change projections indicate that rainfall intensity is likely to increase, potentially exacerbating flood risks in the area.

Bushfire risk is another concern for Lurnea, as the suburb is surrounded by bushland. Hotter and drier conditions, driven by climate change, could lead to more frequent and intense bushfires. Residents need to be prepared for potential evacuations and property damage.

Heatwaves are also a growing threat to Lurnea. As temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, posing health risks to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

While Lurnea is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and infrastructure, could still affect the suburb. Adapting to these challenges will require a coordinated effort from residents, local government, and emergency services.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Liverpool City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Lurnea?

Lurnea faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Lurnea?

Liverpool City Council provides flood maps and information on its website.

Is Lurnea likely to experience more droughts in the future?

Climate change projections suggest that the region may experience more frequent and severe droughts, impacting water availability.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Lurnea, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Lurnea's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections