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Climate Risk Assessment for Manar, NSW

Manar, New South Wales· Upper Lachlan Shire Council· 2583
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Manar faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of floods and the frequency of heatwaves. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manar

increasing

Flood

65/100

Manar faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Manar has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Manar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Manar is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manar

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Manar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (minimal)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Manar faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Manar is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Manar has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades to reduce heat stress.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Abercrombie River
Elevation Range
600-700m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Abercrombie River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that properties close to the river are at higher risk.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to forested areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW RFS for bushfire prone areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check local fire danger ratings and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Monitor weather forecasts and take precautions during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Significant flooding in the Abercrombie River affected low-lying areas around Manar.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused property damage and evacuations.

Source
2017
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred after heavy rainfall.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Manar is projected to experience increased flooding and more frequent heatwaves. Bushfire risk will also rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Programs

Near-term

Conduct community workshops and provide resources on bushfire preparedness, including property maintenance and evacuation planning.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Install Water Tanks

Long-term

Install rainwater tanks to conserve water and reduce reliance on mains water during droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Manar's Climate Risk Profile

Manar, located in New South Wales, is exposed to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and heatwaves resulting from rising average temperatures. Bushfire risk is also a factor, given the surrounding vegetation.

Flooding is a significant concern for Manar. The area's proximity to waterways makes it vulnerable to riverine flooding, which is expected to worsen with climate change. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm drainage systems and cause property damage.

Heatwaves are another growing threat. Higher average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events can pose health risks, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. It is important for residents to take precautions during periods of extreme heat.

Bushfire risk is moderate but should not be ignored. The surrounding vegetation can become dry and flammable during hot, dry periods, increasing the likelihood of bushfires. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

While Manar is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, can still affect the community. Adapting to these changes will be crucial for the long-term resilience of Manar.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Upper Lachlan Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Upper Lachlan Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Manar?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Manar?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions, while those with good bushfire protection measures may maintain their value.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Manar?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Manar?

The NSW Rural Fire Service website provides information about bushfire prone areas and fire danger ratings.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The Upper Lachlan Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community.

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