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Climate Risk in Manyana, NSW

Manyana, New South Wales· Shoalhaven· 2539
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Manyana is a coastal suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks. The primary concerns are bushfire and flooding, with increasing risks from heat and coastal erosion due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Manyana

increasing

Flood

60/100

Manyana faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Manyana has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Increased temperatures
increasing

Heat

40/100

Manyana experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Manyana faces a moderate coastal risk due to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This can impact coastal properties and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Manyana

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Manyana experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Manyana faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Coastal inundation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Manyana faces a moderate coastal risk due to sea level rise and coastal erosion. This can impact coastal properties and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Manyana has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase in the future due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone land overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.
  • 5.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Conjola
Elevation Range
0-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near Lake Conjola and low-lying areas are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the lake and along drainage lines.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Many properties are located in or near bushfire-prone areas, requiring adherence to building codes and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

The average maximum temperature in January is increasing, with more frequent days exceeding 30 degrees Celsius.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some coastal areas are experiencing erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Manyana, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Manyana, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires severely impacted the South Coast, including areas near Manyana, causing widespread damage and evacuations.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Significant rainfall events led to localized flooding in Manyana, affecting roads and properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood606.2(+0.2)6.4(+0.4)6.3(+0.3)6.6(+0.6)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.6(+0.6)7.6(+0.6)7.9(+0.9)
heat404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)4.4(+0.4)4.8(+0.8)
coastal505.3(+0.3)5.5(+0.5)5.4(+0.4)5.7(+0.7)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Manyana is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, with notable increases in bushfire and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Emergency Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive bushfire emergency plan for your household, including evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and a survival kit.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home's Bushfire Resilience

Near-term

Implement measures to improve your home's bushfire resilience, such as clearing vegetation, installing ember guards, and using fire-resistant building materials.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install Rainwater Tanks

Near-term

Install rainwater tanks to capture and store rainwater for non-potable uses, reducing reliance on mains water and mitigating flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Support local council initiatives to implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls, beach nourishment, and dune restoration.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Participate in Community Climate Action

Long-term

Engage in community-based climate action initiatives, such as tree planting, energy conservation programs, and advocacy for climate-friendly policies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Manyana's Climate Risk Profile

Manyana, located on the South Coast of New South Wales, is a beautiful coastal community known for its beaches and natural environment. However, like many coastal areas, Manyana is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The primary climate risks for Manyana include bushfires, flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. The surrounding bushland creates a significant bushfire risk, particularly during hot, dry periods. Flooding can occur due to heavy rainfall and coastal inundation. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a threat to vulnerable populations. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are also concerns for properties located near the coastline.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Temperatures are expected to rise, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, increasing the risk of both floods and droughts. Sea levels are projected to continue rising, exacerbating coastal erosion and inundation.

Residents of Manyana should take steps to prepare for these climate risks. This includes developing emergency plans, maintaining properties to reduce bushfire risk, and staying informed about weather warnings. Community-level adaptation strategies, such as improved drainage and coastal protection measures, are also essential.

Addressing climate change requires both individual and collective action. By reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the changing climate, we can help protect Manyana and other vulnerable communities from the worst impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Shoalhaven City Council

Local Government Resources

Shoalhaven City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Manyana?

The main climate change risks for Manyana include bushfires, flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and sea level rise.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires in Manyana?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, installing ember guards, using fire-resistant building materials, and developing a bushfire emergency plan.

What should I do during a flood in Manyana?

During a flood, stay informed about weather warnings, avoid driving through floodwaters, and evacuate if necessary. Follow the instructions of emergency services.

How can I reduce my carbon footprint in Manyana?

You can reduce your carbon footprint by conserving energy, using public transport, reducing waste, and supporting sustainable businesses.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Manyana?

Shoalhaven City Council is implementing various initiatives to address climate change, including developing a climate strategy, promoting energy efficiency, and managing coastal erosion.

Where can I find information about emergency services during a bushfire?

Information about emergency services during a bushfire can be found on the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) website and through local media outlets.

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