Climate Risk Profile: Mares Run, NSW

Mares Run, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mares Run faces increasing risks from bushfires and heatwaves due to climate change. Flooding is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mares Run

increasing

Flood

40/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area is susceptible to bushfires due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

The suburb experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mares Run

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

The suburb experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area is susceptible to bushfires due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased risk perceptions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider potential impacts on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range
Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near waterways

Check local council flood maps for specific property risks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW RFS bushfire prone land maps
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Prepare a bushfire survival plan and maintain your property.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Stay informed about heatwave warnings and take precautions.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
100 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected the region, with record high temperatures.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)
bushfire606.3(+0.3)6.6(+0.6)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, the region is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, along with an increased risk of bushfires. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, leading to potential flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for your household in the event of a bushfire, including evacuation routes and emergency contacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Cooling

Near-term

Install air conditioning or fans to help stay cool during heatwaves. Insulate your home to reduce heat gain.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve Drainage

Near-term

Ensure proper drainage around your property to reduce the risk of flooding. Clear gutters and downpipes regularly.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Plant Native Trees

Long-term

Planting native trees can help to cool your home and reduce the urban heat island effect. Choose drought-tolerant species.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mares Run's Climate Risk Profile

Mares Run, like many areas in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are rising temperatures, increased bushfire risk, and the potential for more intense rainfall events leading to flooding.

The risk of bushfires is elevated due to hotter, drier conditions and the presence of surrounding bushland. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments during extreme heat, and check on elderly neighbors.

While coastal risks are low due to the suburb's location, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from coastal erosion and sea-level rise. Changes to rainfall patterns could also affect water availability and agricultural productivity.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of individual preparedness, community resilience, and government action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Government

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mares Run?

The main risks are increased bushfire danger, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and potential for flooding due to heavy rainfall.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Check the RFS website for more information.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on elderly or vulnerable neighbors. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

Check the NSW Government flood maps and contact your local council for information about flood-prone areas and emergency preparedness.

How will climate change affect property values in Mares Run?

Increased climate risks may affect property values and insurance premiums. It's important to consider these factors when buying or selling property.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

Climate Risk in Mares Run Nsw, NSW: 2026 Assessment | ClimateNest