Climate Risk Profile: Mares Run, NSW
Mares Run faces increasing risks from bushfires and heatwaves due to climate change. Flooding is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mares Run
Flood
Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
The area is susceptible to bushfires due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate the risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
The suburb experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.
Key drivers:
- ·Distance from coast
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mares Run
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
The suburb experiences high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
flood Risk
Flooding may occur due to heavy rainfall and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Inadequate drainage
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.5
2050
5.0
coastal Risk
Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The area is susceptible to bushfires due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate the risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Fuel load
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.
Price Impact
Property values may be affected by increased risk perceptions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Consider potential impacts on insurance premiums.
- 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Local creeks and drainage systems
- Elevation Range
- Varies across the suburb
- Flood Zone
- Potentially affected areas near waterways
Check local council flood maps for specific property risks.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to bushland areas
- Planning Overlay
- Refer to NSW RFS bushfire prone land maps
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Prepare a bushfire survival plan and maintain your property.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 32.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Stay informed about heatwave warnings and take precautions.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 100 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not directly exposed
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Climate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 40 | 4.2(+0.2) | 4.4(+0.4) |
| bushfire | 60 | 6.3(+0.3) | 6.6(+0.6) |
| heat | 70 | 7.5(+0.5) | 8.0(+1.0) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, the region is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, along with an increased risk of bushfires. Rainfall patterns may become more erratic, leading to potential flooding.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan
ImmediateCreate a detailed plan for your household in the event of a bushfire, including evacuation routes and emergency contacts.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreImprove Home Cooling
Near-termInstall air conditioning or fans to help stay cool during heatwaves. Insulate your home to reduce heat gain.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImprove Drainage
Near-termEnsure proper drainage around your property to reduce the risk of flooding. Clear gutters and downpipes regularly.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePlant Native Trees
Long-termPlanting native trees can help to cool your home and reduce the urban heat island effect. Choose drought-tolerant species.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Mares Run's Climate Risk Profile
Mares Run, like many areas in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are rising temperatures, increased bushfire risk, and the potential for more intense rainfall events leading to flooding.
The risk of bushfires is elevated due to hotter, drier conditions and the presence of surrounding bushland. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and stay informed about fire danger ratings.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments during extreme heat, and check on elderly neighbors.
While coastal risks are low due to the suburb's location, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from coastal erosion and sea-level rise. Changes to rainfall patterns could also affect water availability and agricultural productivity.
Addressing these challenges requires a combination of individual preparedness, community resilience, and government action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the changing climate.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Government
Local Government Resources
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Mares Run?
The main risks are increased bushfire danger, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and potential for flooding due to heavy rainfall.
How can I prepare my home for bushfires?
Clear vegetation around your home, maintain gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Check the RFS website for more information.
What should I do during a heatwave?
Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on elderly or vulnerable neighbors. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.
Where can I find information about local flood risks?
Check the NSW Government flood maps and contact your local council for information about flood-prone areas and emergency preparedness.
How will climate change affect property values in Mares Run?
Increased climate risks may affect property values and insurance premiums. It's important to consider these factors when buying or selling property.
Get your property's risk report
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