Climate Risk Profile: Marinna, NSW

Marinna, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Marinna faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these hazards. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.2

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Marinna

increasing

Flood

65/100

Marinna faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The risk of bushfires in Marinna is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a threat during dry and windy conditions. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate bushfire risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

70/100

Marinna is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress and strain on infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

15/100

Coastal risks are low in Marinna due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

·Distance from coast

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Marinna

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Marinna is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Rising temperatures can lead to heat stress and strain on infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

flood Risk

65/100

Marinna faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

coastal Risk

15/100

Coastal risks are low in Marinna due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

bushfire Risk

42/100

The risk of bushfires in Marinna is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a threat during dry and windy conditions. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate bushfire risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider potential impacts of climate change on property value.
4.Review insurance options and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Local Creek
Elevation Range: 50-70m
Flood Zone: Partially within flood zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 1km
Planning Overlay: Bushfire prone area overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 4 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low
Erosion Risk: Low

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the region, impacting homes and businesses.

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened the outskirts of the suburb, requiring evacuations.

2017

heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to heat stress and health concerns.

2020

bushfireMajor

Widespread bushfires impacted the region, causing significant damage and disruption.

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.8(+0.3)	7.0(+0.5)
bushfire	42	4.4(+0.2)	4.6(+0.4)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	15	1.5	1.5

By 2030, Marinna is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by rising temperatures and increased heatwave frequency. Flood and bushfire risks are also expected to increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in drainage upgrades and flood barriers to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around homes and prepare a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a community heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: Low

Sustainable Urban Planning

Long-term

Implement sustainable urban planning practices to reduce the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: High

About Marinna's Climate Risk Profile

Marinna is a suburb in New South Wales that is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, all of which are projected to worsen with climate change.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can cause flash flooding and riverine flooding, impacting homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Bushfire risk is also present, with surrounding bushland posing a threat during dry and windy conditions. Rising temperatures and drier conditions are expected to increase the likelihood and severity of bushfires.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate heat stress in built-up areas. While coastal risks are low due to Marinna's inland location, the suburb is still indirectly affected by broader climate change impacts.

Adapting to these risks will require a combination of individual actions, community initiatives, and government policies. Residents should take steps to prepare their homes and businesses for extreme weather events, while local authorities should invest in infrastructure improvements and emergency management planning. Collaboration and communication are essential to building a climate-resilient community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Example Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Marinna?

The main climate change risks in Marinna are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for flooding?

You can prepare your home for flooding by elevating appliances, installing flood barriers, and ensuring proper drainage. Check your council's flood maps to understand your property's risk.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

Protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Marinna?

You can find more information about climate change impacts in Marinna on the Example Council website, the NSW Government's environment website, and the CSIRO's climate change projections website.

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