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Climate Risk Profile: Marshdale, NSW

Marshdale, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Marshdale faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Marshdale

increasing

Flood

65/100

Marshdale faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Bushfire risk in Marshdale is moderate, influenced by proximity to bushland and prevailing weather conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Heat

70/100

Marshdale is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is low due to Marshdale's inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Marshdale

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Marshdale is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Marshdale faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is low due to Marshdale's inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Bushfire risk in Marshdale is moderate, influenced by proximity to bushland and prevailing weather conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate risks

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency
  • 4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range
Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone
Areas near creeks are prone to flooding

Check your property's flood risk on the council's flood map.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Variable, depending on location within the suburb
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website for bushfire prone areas
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Prepare a bushfire survival plan and maintain your property.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Stay hydrated and avoid strenuous activity during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted several properties in Marshdale following heavy rainfall.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened properties on the outskirts of Marshdale.

Source
2017
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Record-breaking temperatures were recorded during a prolonged heatwave.

Source
2020
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and increased fire danger.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Marshdale is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as an increased risk of flooding. Bushfire risk will also be slightly elevated.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement stricter building codes

Long-term

New buildings should be built to higher standards of resilience to flooding and bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire preparedness programs

Near-term

Educate residents on how to prepare their properties for bushfires and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Marshdale's Climate Risk Profile

Marshdale is a suburb in New South Wales that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from increased rainfall intensity, bushfires due to drier conditions and heatwaves, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for property damage and disruption to daily life. The risk is exacerbated by urban development and inadequate drainage infrastructure. Bushfire risk is also increasing due to drier conditions and the accumulation of flammable vegetation.

Heatwaves pose a threat to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further amplify the impact of heatwaves.

While coastal risks are low due to Marshdale's inland location, the suburb is not immune to the broader impacts of climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Your Local Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Marshdale?

The main risks are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

Check your property's flood risk on the council's flood map. Consider installing flood barriers and raising electrical appliances.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, and seek shelter in a cool place. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

Clear flammable vegetation around your home, maintain your gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Marshdale?

Visit the council's website or the NSW government's environment website for more information.

Is Marshdale a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Marshdale faces climate risks, taking appropriate adaptation measures can mitigate these risks. Consider the specific location of the property and its vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Marshdale, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Marshdale →

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