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Climate Risk Profile: Marulan, NSW

Marulan, New South Wales· Goulburn Mulwaree· 2579
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Marulan faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Residents should prepare for potential impacts and take steps to mitigate risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Marulan

increasing

Flood

45/100

Marulan faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Wollondilly River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can cause these waterways to overflow, impacting low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding Marulan is classified as bushfire prone. Densely vegetated areas increase the risk of bushfires, particularly during hot and dry conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Marulan experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Marulan is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Marulan

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Marulan experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Marulan faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Wollondilly River and local creeks. Intense rainfall events can cause these waterways to overflow, impacting low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Marulan is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding Marulan is classified as bushfire prone. Densely vegetated areas increase the risk of bushfires, particularly during hot and dry conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand policy coverage.
  • 4.Develop a flood and bushfire emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wollondilly River
Elevation Range
670-700m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Wollondilly River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the river. Council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire prone area overlay applies to much of the area surrounding Marulan.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents are advised to maintain firebreaks, clear vegetation around homes, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the future.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Wollondilly River to flood, impacting low-lying areas of Marulan.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Marulan threatened properties, requiring firefighting efforts to contain the blaze.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the region, with smoke and ash affecting Marulan.

Source
2020
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in Marulan.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.0(+0.5)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)
heat505.8(+0.8)6.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Marulan is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise due to drier conditions.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood mitigation infrastructure, such as levees and drainage improvements, to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire risk reduction measures, such as hazard reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Create a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Community Resilience

Long-term

Foster community resilience through education, awareness campaigns, and community-led initiatives.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Marulan's Climate Risk Profile

Marulan, located in the Southern Tablelands of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding from the Wollondilly River and local creeks, bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.

Flooding is a significant concern, particularly in low-lying areas near waterways. Intense rainfall events can cause rapid rises in water levels, potentially inundating properties and disrupting infrastructure. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Bushfire risk is also elevated due to the presence of extensive bushland surrounding the town. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly, threatening homes and lives. Climate change is expected to prolong the bushfire season and increase the severity of fires.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Climate change is driving up average temperatures and increasing the likelihood of extreme heat events.

While Marulan is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the town.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Goulburn Mulwaree Council

Local Government Resources

Goulburn Mulwaree Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Marulan?

Marulan faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

Check flood maps, raise electrical appliances, and have an evacuation plan.

What should I do during a bushfire?

Follow your bushfire survival plan, stay informed, and evacuate if necessary.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Marulan?

Consult the Goulburn Mulwaree Council website, the NSW government's climate change website, and the CSIRO climate projections.

Is Marulan a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Marulan has many positive attributes, potential buyers should carefully consider the climate risks and take appropriate mitigation measures. Consult with local experts and review available climate data before making a decision.

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