Climate Risk Assessment for Merimbula, NSW

Merimbula, New South Wales· Bega Valley· 2548
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Merimbula is a coastal town in New South Wales that faces several climate-related risks. These risks include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. The overall risk score for Merimbula is moderate, and the risks are projected to increase in the future.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.5
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Merimbula

increasing

Flood

65/100

Merimbula faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

45/100

The area around Merimbula has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

70/100

Merimbula is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Merimbula faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards can impact infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Merimbula

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Merimbula is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Merimbula faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Merimbula faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards can impact infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

45/100

The area around Merimbula has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate change risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to climate change impacts.
  • 3.Consider the potential for increased insurance premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate change adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Merimbula Lake
Elevation Range
0-50 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near Merimbula Lake and coastal areas are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted low-lying areas of Merimbula, particularly around the lake and along the coast.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas to the west and north.
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW RFS for bushfire prone area mapping.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area has experienced bushfires in the past, highlighting the ongoing risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves can place a strain on local infrastructure and emergency services.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some areas are at risk of coastal erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Merimbula.

Source
2018
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas surrounding Merimbula, leading to evacuations.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the region, including Merimbula.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall and flooding impacted the region, causing damage to infrastructure and properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire455.0(+0.5)5.5(+1.0)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)

By 2030, Merimbula is projected to experience a moderate increase in climate change risks, with higher temperatures, more intense rainfall events, and rising sea levels.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees and drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improve bushfire management

Immediate

Implement measures to reduce the risk of bushfires, such as controlled burns and vegetation management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave early warning system

Near-term

Implement a system to alert residents to impending heatwaves and provide advice on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement measures to protect coastal areas from erosion, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Educate the community about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Merimbula's Climate Risk Profile

Merimbula, located on the Sapphire Coast of New South Wales, is a popular tourist destination known for its beaches, waterways, and natural beauty. However, the town is also vulnerable to a range of climate change impacts.

Flooding is a significant concern for Merimbula, particularly due to its coastal location and proximity to rivers and creeks. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding, which can damage property and infrastructure. Sea level rise is also expected to exacerbate the risk of flooding in low-lying areas.

The area around Merimbula is also susceptible to bushfires, especially during hot, dry periods. The presence of surrounding bushland increases the risk of bushfires spreading to populated areas. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in the region.

Heatwaves are another growing concern for Merimbula. As global temperatures rise, the town is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can pose a risk to human health, particularly for vulnerable populations. Coastal erosion is also a threat to Merimbula's beaches and foreshore areas. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity can accelerate coastal erosion, which can damage property and infrastructure.

Addressing these climate change risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Adaptation measures include building flood defenses, improving bushfire management practices, and implementing heatwave early warning systems. Mitigation measures include reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow down the rate of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Bega Valley Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Merimbula?

Merimbula faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

How is climate change expected to impact property values in Merimbula?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

What is the council doing to address climate change risks in Merimbula?

The Bega Valley Shire Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding in Merimbula?

Consider installing flood defenses, such as levees and drainage systems.

How can I prepare for a bushfire in Merimbula?

Clear vegetation around your property and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Merimbula?

Consult the Bega Valley Shire Council website and the NSW government's climate change website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections