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Climate Risk Assessment for Mogareeka, NSW

Mogareeka, New South Wales· Bega Valley· 2550
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mogareeka is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from climate change, particularly from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures and sea levels.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
5.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mogareeka

increasing

Flood

65/100

Mogareeka faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Bega River and coastal areas. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Mogareeka has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Mogareeka is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly during summer months.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
increasing

Coastal

53/100

Mogareeka faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its coastal location. Sea level rise is expected to worsen these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Coastal erosion
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mogareeka

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Mogareeka is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly during summer months.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Mogareeka faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Bega River and coastal areas. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Coastal inundation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

53/100

Mogareeka faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its coastal location. Sea level rise is expected to worsen these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Coastal erosion
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.6

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Mogareeka has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Bega River
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal floodplain

Several properties are located within the 1 in 100 year flood zone.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western edge of Mogareeka borders significant bushland, increasing bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Average January maximum temperature is projected to increase by 1-2 degrees Celsius by 2050.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas exposed to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along the coastline

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding of the Bega River impacted Mogareeka, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2018
bushfireModerate

Bushfires near Bega threatened Mogareeka, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the Bega Valley region, including Mogareeka, with widespread smoke and some property damage.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Mogareeka, impacting local businesses and residences.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.8(+1.3)
bushfire404.5(+0.5)5.2(+1.2)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.3(+1.3)
coastal535.8(+0.5)6.7(+1.4)

By 2030, Mogareeka is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher flood, bushfire, heatwave and coastal erosion risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved flood defenses, such as levees and drainage systems, to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Management

Immediate

Implement bushfire risk reduction measures, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Erosion Management

Long-term

Implement coastal erosion management strategies, such as beach nourishment and seawalls, to protect coastal properties and infrastructure.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation measures through community workshops and information campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mogareeka's Climate Risk Profile

Mogareeka, located in the Bega Valley of New South Wales, is a coastal suburb that is vulnerable to a range of climate change impacts. The suburb's proximity to the Bega River and the coast makes it particularly susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion.

Rising temperatures and drier conditions are expected to increase the risk of bushfires in the area. Heatwaves are also projected to become more frequent and intense, posing a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations.

Sea level rise is a significant concern for Mogareeka, as it will exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation. This could lead to damage to property and infrastructure, as well as loss of coastal habitats.

Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. This includes investing in flood defenses, managing bushfire risk, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Bega Valley Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Bega Valley Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mogareeka?

Mogareeka faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are projected to worsen with climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Mogareeka?

Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation, potentially damaging properties and infrastructure along the coastline.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Mogareeka?

The Bega Valley Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, including flood management plans and bushfire risk reduction programs.

How can I prepare my property for flooding in Mogareeka?

You can elevate your property, install flood barriers, and ensure that your insurance covers flood damage.

What should I do during a heatwave in Mogareeka?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Mogareeka?

The NSW Rural Fire Service website provides information about bushfire prone areas and bushfire safety tips.

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