Climate Risk in Mogriguy, New South Wales

Mogriguy, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mogriguy faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. The suburb is located inland and does not face coastal risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mogriguy

increasing

Flood

60/100

Mogriguy faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Mogriguy has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to worsen these conditions, leading to a higher frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Surrounding bushland
  • ·Hot, dry conditions
increasing

Heat

50/100

Mogriguy experiences moderate heat risk, with hot summers and occasional heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase average temperatures and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mogriguy is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion. The risk is negligible.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mogriguy

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Mogriguy experiences moderate heat risk, with hot summers and occasional heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase average temperatures and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·More intense heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Mogriguy faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Low-lying areas

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mogriguy is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion. The risk is negligible.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Mogriguy has a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires. Climate change is projected to worsen these conditions, leading to a higher frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Surrounding bushland
  • ·Hot, dry conditions
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increasing risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by the increasing risk of extreme weather events.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property protection measures.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options for heatwaves.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range
250-270m
Flood Zone
Unknown

Local creeks and drainage systems may be overwhelmed during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can pose a significant health risk, especially for vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
450 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas, disrupting transport and damaging property.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Mogriguy threatened properties and required emergency services intervention.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2019
droughtMajor

Prolonged drought conditions impacted agriculture and water resources in the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Mogriguy is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood, bushfire, and heatwave risks. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate these impacts.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood control measures to reduce the impact of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Promote water conservation measures to ensure a sustainable water supply during prolonged droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mogriguy's Climate Risk Profile

Mogriguy, NSW, is a rural locality that faces a number of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. While the area is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the impacts of climate change are still significant.

Flooding is a moderate risk due to the presence of waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, could lead to more frequent and severe flood events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is high due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk of bushfires. Climate change is projected to worsen these conditions, leading to a higher frequency and intensity of bushfires. Property owners should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are also a concern, with average temperatures expected to rise. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take steps to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water and seeking air-conditioned environments.

Overall, Mogriguy faces a range of climate-related challenges that require proactive adaptation measures. By understanding the risks and taking appropriate action, residents can protect themselves and their properties from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Mogriguy?

Mogriguy faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Mogriguy?

Property values may be negatively impacted by the increasing risk of extreme weather events.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Mogriguy?

Maintain your property, clear vegetation, and have a bushfire survival plan.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Mogriguy?

Drink plenty of water, seek air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Mogriguy?

Contact the local council or the NSW State Emergency Service for flood maps and information.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections