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Climate Risk in Mondrook, NSW

Mondrook, New South Wales· MidCoast· 2430
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mondrook is a suburb in New South Wales that faces a medium overall climate risk. The primary risks are flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire and coastal risks also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mondrook

increasing

Flood

60/100

Mondrook faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Mondrook has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Mondrook is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Mondrook faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity could lead to erosion and inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mondrook

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Mondrook is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Mondrook faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Manning River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Mondrook faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity could lead to erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Mondrook has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and vegetation management.
  • 3.Consider heatwave preparedness.
  • 4.Evaluate coastal erosion risk.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Manning River
Elevation Range
5-15m
Flood Zone
Partially within flood zone

Low-lying areas near the river are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas with dense vegetation are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly and vulnerable populations are at higher risk during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low to moderate exposure
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Major flooding in the Manning River caused widespread damage in the region.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2017
stormMinor

Severe storms caused power outages and minor property damage.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Flooding in the Manning River impacted low-lying areas.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable populations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal505.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)

By 2030, Mondrook is projected to experience an increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks. Bushfire and coastal risks are also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and improve drainage systems to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Manage Vegetation

Immediate

Reduce fuel load around properties to mitigate bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Prepare for Heatwaves

Near-term

Develop a heatwave plan and ensure access to cooling centers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Protect Coastal Areas

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures to reduce erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mondrook's Climate Risk Profile

Mondrook, located in the MidCoast region of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related hazards. The suburb's proximity to the Manning River makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding, which is expected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity due to climate change. Additionally, Mondrook is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a threat to public health.

The surrounding vegetation also contributes to a moderate bushfire risk, which is projected to increase with hotter, drier conditions. Furthermore, Mondrook's coastal location means it is susceptible to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surge, potentially leading to erosion and inundation.

Understanding these risks is crucial for residents and property owners in Mondrook. Taking proactive measures to adapt to climate change, such as improving flood defenses, managing vegetation, and preparing for heatwaves, can help mitigate the potential impacts. Staying informed about local emergency plans and heeding warnings from authorities is also essential for ensuring safety.

This page provides detailed information about the specific climate risks facing Mondrook, including historical events, climate projections, and adaptation recommendations. By understanding the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change, the community can work together to build a more resilient and sustainable future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · MidCoast Council

Local Government Resources

MidCoast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Mondrook?

The main climate risks in Mondrook are flooding, heatwaves, bushfires, and coastal hazards.

How is climate change expected to impact Mondrook?

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these hazards, leading to greater risks for residents and property owners.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in Mondrook?

You can improve drainage around your property, elevate valuable items, and develop a flood plan.

How can I protect my home from bushfires?

You can clear vegetation around your home, install fire-resistant materials, and have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Mondrook?

You can find more information on the MidCoast Council website, the NSW SES website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Is my property likely to be affected by sea level rise?

Properties closer to the coast are more likely to be affected by sea level rise. Check with the MidCoast Council for specific information about your property.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Mondrook, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Mondrook →

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