Climate Risk in Mount Kuring-Gai, NSW

Mount Kuring-Gai, New South Wales· Hornsby· 2080
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mount Kuring-Gai is a suburb in northern Sydney with a moderate overall climate risk. The primary concerns are bushfire and flooding, with increasing heat risk due to climate change. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mount Kuring-Gai

increasing

Flood

40/100

Mount Kuring-Gai has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. Properties in low-lying areas are more vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

70/100

Mount Kuring-Gai faces a high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to extensive bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

40/100

Mount Kuring-Gai experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Mount Kuring-Gai has a low risk of coastal hazards due to its inland location and elevation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mount Kuring-Gai

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Mount Kuring-Gai experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Mount Kuring-Gai has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. Properties in low-lying areas are more vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mount Kuring-Gai has a low risk of coastal hazards due to its inland location and elevation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (Current Climate)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Mount Kuring-Gai faces a high risk of bushfires due to its proximity to extensive bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (Current Climate)

2030

7.0

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may be higher for properties in bushfire-prone areas.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience some price impact.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Review insurance coverage and premiums.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Berowra Creek
Elevation Range
50-150m
Flood Zone
Areas near Berowra Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Hornsby Shire Council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park
Planning Overlay
NSW Rural Fire Service Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should adhere to bushfire safety guidelines and maintain firebreaks around their properties.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents and those with chronic health conditions are particularly vulnerable to heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed to sea-level rise.
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Mount Kuring-Gai, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in low-lying areas of Mount Kuring-Gai, affecting some residential properties.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on local resources.

Source
2020
stormMinor

Severe storms caused power outages and minor property damage in Mount Kuring-Gai.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
bushfire707.1(+0.1)7.3(+0.3)
heat404.5(+0.5)5.8(+1.8)
coastal101.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Mount Kuring-Gai is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. Flood risk may also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement comprehensive bushfire management plans, including vegetation clearing, firebreaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Flood Resilience

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure, implement flood early warning systems, and promote flood-resistant building practices.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Reduce Urban Heat Island Effect

Near-term

Increase green spaces, plant trees, and use reflective building materials to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water-saving measures, such as rainwater harvesting and greywater recycling, to reduce water demand during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mount Kuring-Gai's Climate Risk Profile

Mount Kuring-Gai, located in the northern suburbs of Sydney, faces a combination of climate-related challenges. The suburb's proximity to extensive bushland elevates the risk of bushfires, particularly during the dry summer months. Historical data indicates a recurring threat from bushfires, requiring residents to maintain vigilance and preparedness.

Flooding is another significant concern for Mount Kuring-Gai. Heavy rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas and near creeks. The local council has implemented measures to mitigate flood risks, but ongoing monitoring and infrastructure improvements are essential.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a growing threat to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate temperatures in built-up areas, increasing the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. Residents are advised to take precautions during heatwave events, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

While coastal hazards are not a direct threat to Mount Kuring-Gai, the broader impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events, can indirectly affect the suburb through disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains. Therefore, a comprehensive approach to climate adaptation is necessary to ensure the long-term resilience of Mount Kuring-Gai.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW Rural Fire Service · Hornsby Shire Council · NSW State Emergency Service

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Mount Kuring-Gai?

The primary climate risks in Mount Kuring-Gai are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to bushland increases the risk of bushfires, while heavy rainfall can lead to flash flooding. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves also pose a threat.

How is Hornsby Shire Council addressing climate change?

Hornsby Shire Council has implemented a range of sustainability initiatives, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting renewable energy, and improving water efficiency. The council also has plans in place to manage flood risks and protect biodiversity.

What can residents do to prepare for bushfires?

Residents can prepare for bushfires by clearing vegetation around their homes, creating firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan. It's also important to stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

How can I reduce my risk of flooding?

To reduce your risk of flooding, ensure that your property is properly drained, and consider installing flood-resistant building materials. Stay informed about flood warnings and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

What are the best ways to stay cool during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on elderly neighbors and those with chronic health conditions.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections