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Climate Risk Profile: Mount Marsh, NSW

Mount Marsh, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mount Marsh is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, particularly from flooding and bushfires. The risk of heatwaves is also increasing. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mount Marsh

increasing

Flood

60/100

Mount Marsh faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is influenced by the local topography and drainage systems.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The bushfire risk in Mount Marsh is relatively high due to the proximity of bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during the fire season can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

40/100

Mount Marsh experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

As an inland suburb, Mount Marsh has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mount Marsh

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Mount Marsh experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Mount Marsh faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is influenced by the local topography and drainage systems.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As an inland suburb, Mount Marsh has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The bushfire risk in Mount Marsh is relatively high due to the proximity of bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during the fire season can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and potential flood risks.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property comfort and energy costs.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creeks
Elevation Range
200-250m
Flood Zone
Moderate Risk Zone

Local creeks and drainage systems are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is located in a designated bushfire-prone area, requiring specific building standards and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The average maximum temperature in January is increasing, leading to more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted the region, causing property damage and disruptions to infrastructure.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened the outskirts of the suburb, requiring evacuations and property protection measures.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions and strain on energy infrastructure.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

Widespread bushfires affected the region, causing significant property damage and environmental impacts.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)6.6(+0.6)7.2(+1.2)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)7.8(+0.8)7.7(+0.7)8.3(+1.3)
heat404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)4.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
coastal101.01.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Mount Marsh is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and bushfire risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood barriers to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Immediate

Implement vegetation management programs and improve building standards to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop heatwave early warning systems and provide cooling centers for vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mount Marsh's Climate Risk Profile

Mount Marsh, NSW, is a suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are related to flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential riverine flooding. The local topography and drainage systems play a crucial role in managing this risk. Bushfire risk is elevated due to the proximity of bushland areas, with hot, dry conditions during the fire season increasing the likelihood of fires.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a threat to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks. While coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location, the suburb is still indirectly affected by broader climate change impacts.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while adaptation strategies aim to build resilience to the impacts of climate change. These strategies include improving infrastructure, implementing early warning systems, and promoting community awareness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Mount Marsh?

The main climate risks in Mount Marsh are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I protect my property from flooding?

You can protect your property from flooding by improving drainage, installing flood barriers, and ensuring your property is adequately insured.

What should I do during a bushfire?

During a bushfire, follow the advice of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and protect your property by clearing vegetation and having a bushfire survival plan.

How can I prepare for a heatwave?

Prepare for a heatwave by staying hydrated, seeking shade or air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Mount Marsh?

You can find more information about climate change impacts in Mount Marsh from the local council, state government agencies, and scientific organizations like CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Mount Marsh, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Mount Marsh →

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