Climate Risk in Mount Tomah, NSW

Mount Tomah, New South Wales· Blue Mountains· 2758

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Mount Tomah faces moderate climate risks, primarily from bushfires, flooding and heatwaves. Projections indicate an increase in these risks over the coming decades. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mount Tomah

increasing

Flood

40/100

Mount Tomah faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local creeks and waterways. The risk is projected to increase with climate change.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Mount Tomah is located in a bushfire-prone area, with a high risk of bushfires during the dry season. The risk is expected to increase due to hotter and drier conditions.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier vegetation

increasing

Heat

50/100

Mount Tomah experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Mount Tomah is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location. Coastal hazards are not a significant concern for this suburb.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mount Tomah

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Mount Tomah experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Mount Tomah faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from local creeks and waterways. The risk is projected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Mount Tomah is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location. Coastal hazards are not a significant concern for this suburb.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Mount Tomah is located in a bushfire-prone area, with a high risk of bushfires during the dry season. The risk is expected to increase due to hotter and drier conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier vegetation
·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Review insurance options and costs.
4.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Grose River
Elevation Range: 900-1000m
Flood Zone: Low to Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not Applicable
Erosion Risk: Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019

bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires significantly impacted the Blue Mountains region, including areas near Mount Tomah.

Source

2013

bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Blue Mountains National Park threatened properties in Mount Tomah.

Source

2011

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of the Blue Mountains, including areas near Mount Tomah.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.5(+0.5)
bushfire	70	7.4(+0.4)	7.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.6(+0.6)	6.0(+1.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Mount Tomah is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks. Flooding risk is also expected to increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and developing evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Flood Resilience

Near-term

Improve drainage infrastructure and implement flood-resistant building designs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Management Plan

Near-term

Establish a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mount Tomah's Climate Risk Profile

Mount Tomah, located in the Blue Mountains region of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves, all of which are projected to intensify due to climate change.

Bushfire risk is particularly high due to the surrounding bushland and dry conditions. The area has a history of bushfire events, and the risk is expected to increase with hotter and drier summers. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Flooding is another concern, with heavy rainfall events potentially causing flash flooding and riverine flooding. The risk is exacerbated by changes in land use and inadequate drainage infrastructure. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, further increasing flood risk.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should take precautions to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water and staying in air-conditioned environments.

Overall, Mount Tomah faces significant climate challenges that require proactive adaptation measures. Residents, businesses, and local government need to work together to reduce risk and build resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Blue Mountains City Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Mount Tomah?

The main climate risks in Mount Tomah are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining your gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Mount Tomah?

You can find information about flood risks in Mount Tomah on the Blue Mountains City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

How is the local council addressing climate change?

The Blue Mountains City Council has a climate strategy in place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts.

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30-120%

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*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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