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Climate Risk in Mulgrave, NSW

Mulgrave, New South Wales· Hawkesbury· 2756
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Mulgrave, NSW, faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is moderate. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mulgrave

increasing

Flood

85/100

Mulgrave is at high risk of flooding due to its location on the Hawkesbury River floodplain. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Mulgrave faces a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions caused by climate change are projected to increase bushfire frequency and intensity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Decreased rainfall
increasing

Heat

70/100

Mulgrave is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

20/100

Mulgrave is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mulgrave

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Mulgrave is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.4

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

85/100

Mulgrave is at high risk of flooding due to its location on the Hawkesbury River floodplain. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Mulgrave is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Mulgrave faces a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions caused by climate change are projected to increase bushfire frequency and intensity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Decreased rainfall
  • ·Drier vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.7

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value.
  • 4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Hawkesbury River
Elevation Range
10-20m
Flood Zone
Yes

Mulgrave is located on the Hawkesbury River floodplain and has a history of flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area surrounding Mulgrave is classified as bushfire prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Mulgrave experiences hot summers with occasional heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodMajor

Major flooding of the Hawkesbury River inundated parts of Mulgrave.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Moderate flooding of the Hawkesbury River affected low-lying areas in Mulgrave.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Hawkesbury region caused smoky conditions in Mulgrave.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Flooding along the Hawkesbury River impacted Mulgrave.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Heatwave conditions across NSW, including Mulgrave, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood858.8(+0.3)9.2(+0.7)
bushfire606.2(+0.2)6.4(+0.4)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal202.02.0

By 2030, Mulgrave is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by increased flooding and heatwave intensity.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Invest in flood levees and drainage systems to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Near-term

Create a community heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire risk reduction measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to require new buildings to be more resilient to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Immediate

Educate residents about climate risks and how to prepare for extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mulgrave's Climate Risk Profile

Mulgrave, located in the Hawkesbury region of New South Wales, is particularly vulnerable to flooding due to its proximity to the Hawkesbury River. Climate change projections indicate an increase in heavy rainfall events, which will likely exacerbate the existing flood risk. This poses a threat to homes, businesses, and infrastructure in the area.

In addition to flooding, Mulgrave is also expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The urban environment can amplify the effects of heat, making it particularly challenging for vulnerable populations to cope during extreme heat events. Residents should take steps to stay cool and hydrated during hot weather.

Bushfire risk is also a concern in Mulgrave, as the suburb is surrounded by bushland. Hotter, drier conditions increase the likelihood of bushfires, which can pose a threat to lives and property. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety precautions and have a plan in place in case of a fire.

While Mulgrave is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the impacts of climate change will be felt across the region. It is important for residents to take action to reduce their carbon footprint and support efforts to mitigate climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Hawkesbury City Council

Local Government Resources

Hawkesbury City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Mulgrave?

Mulgrave faces significant risks from flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Mulgrave?

You can prepare your home for flooding by raising electrical outlets, installing flood barriers, and creating a flood emergency plan.

What should I do during a heatwave in Mulgrave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Mulgrave?

You can protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing fire sprinklers, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Mulgrave?

You can find more information about climate change in Mulgrave on the Hawkesbury City Council website, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage website, and the CSIRO website.

Is Mulgrave a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Mulgrave has climate risks, taking appropriate mitigation steps and considering future climate projections can inform property investment decisions. Consult with local experts for detailed advice.

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