Climate Risk Profile: Mullion Creek, NSW

Mullion Creek, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Mullion Creek faces moderate climate risks, primarily from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, posing challenges for residents and infrastructure.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Mullion Creek

increasing

Flood

40/100

Mullion Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local creek overflow
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area around Mullion Creek is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry periods and heatwaves. The risk is exacerbated by surrounding bushland and potential for strong winds.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Mullion Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

As Mullion Creek is not located near the coast, the risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is very low.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Mullion Creek

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Mullion Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Mullion Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and local creek overflows. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Local creek overflow
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

6.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As Mullion Creek is not located near the coast, the risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is very low.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area around Mullion Creek is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry periods and heatwaves. The risk is exacerbated by surrounding bushland and potential for strong winds.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to elevated bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be moderately affected by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades to reduce heat stress.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mullion Creek
Elevation Range
600-700m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Historical flood data indicates localised flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Mullion Creek, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localised flooding in Mullion Creek, disrupting transportation and damaging property.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Mullion Creek, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the region, with widespread property loss and environmental damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Mullion Creek is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as heightened bushfire risk due to drier conditions.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Develop and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan, including vegetation clearing, firebreaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to mitigate flood risk, such as drainage upgrades, levee construction, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Resilience

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce the impact of heatwaves, such as establishing cooling centers, providing public education on heat safety, and promoting energy efficiency upgrades.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation through education campaigns, rebates for water-efficient appliances, and restrictions on water usage during dry periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Mullion Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Mullion Creek, located in New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves, which are projected to become more frequent and intense due to climate change.

Bushfire risk is significant due to the surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions combined with strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly, threatening homes and livelihoods. Residents should be prepared for potential evacuations and property protection measures.

Flooding is another concern, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Local creeks and waterways can overflow, inundating low-lying areas and disrupting transportation. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Extreme heat can also strain infrastructure, such as power grids and transportation systems.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the community should still be aware of the broader impacts of climate change and take steps to adapt to a changing environment.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Mullion Creek?

The main climate change risks in Mullion Creek are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, installing firebreaks, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, and seek shelter in a cool place. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

You can find information about local flood risks on the NSW Planning Portal or by contacting your local council.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council's climate strategy is not publicly available. Contact the council directly for more information.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Mullion Creek, use our analysis tool.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections