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Climate Risk Profile: Murrays Run, NSW

Murrays Run, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Murrays Run faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The risk scores are projected to increase by 2030 and 2050 under a high emissions scenario.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Murrays Run

increasing

Flood

60/100

Murrays Run faces a moderate risk of flooding. This risk is primarily due to heavy rainfall events and the potential for localised flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The bushfire risk in Murrays Run is high due to its proximity to bushland and prevailing weather conditions. Drier conditions and higher temperatures contribute to increased fire danger.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Murrays Run experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase, impacting vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Murrays Run has a low risk related to coastal hazards, as it is not located near the coast.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Murrays Run

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Murrays Run experiences a moderate risk from heatwaves. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase, impacting vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Murrays Run faces a moderate risk of flooding. This risk is primarily due to heavy rainfall events and the potential for localised flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Murrays Run has a low risk related to coastal hazards, as it is not located near the coast.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The bushfire risk in Murrays Run is high due to its proximity to bushland and prevailing weather conditions. Drier conditions and higher temperatures contribute to increased fire danger.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Inquire about local council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local creeks and drainage systems
Elevation Range
Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near creeks

Local drainage infrastructure may be insufficient to handle increased rainfall intensity.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly and vulnerable residents are at increased risk during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localised flooding in low-lying areas of the suburb.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Bushfires in the region caused significant smoke haze and increased fire danger in Murrays Run.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on local resources.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Significant rainfall events led to flash flooding and road closures in and around Murrays Run.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

Under a high emissions scenario, Murrays Run is projected to experience increased flooding, bushfire risk, and more frequent heatwaves by 2030.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan, including vegetation management and community education.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Establish a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable residents, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct community education programs to raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Murrays Run's Climate Risk Profile

Murrays Run, located in New South Wales, is exposed to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by dry conditions and high temperatures, and heatwaves that are projected to become more frequent and intense.

The risk of flooding is driven by both increased rainfall intensity and potential urban development that could reduce natural drainage. Bushfire risk is heightened by the proximity to bushland and the prevalence of dry vegetation. Heatwave risks are increasing due to rising global temperatures and the potential for an urban heat island effect.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, the community should focus on adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These strategies include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and developing heatwave response plans.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort involving local government, emergency services, and the community. By taking proactive measures, Murrays Run can enhance its resilience to the impacts of climate change and protect its residents and infrastructure.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Murrays Run?

The main risks are increased flooding due to heavier rainfall, higher bushfire risk due to drier conditions, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Murrays Run?

Properties in high-risk areas, such as those prone to flooding or bushfires, may experience decreased property values.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The local council is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans, including upgrading drainage infrastructure and managing bushfire risks. Refer to the council's website for more details.

How can I prepare my home for increased climate risks?

You can prepare your home by implementing flood protection measures, creating a bushfire survival plan, and improving energy efficiency to reduce heat stress.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Murrays Run?

You can find more information on the CSIRO website and the NSW government's climate change website.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Murrays Run, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Murrays Run →

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