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Climate Risk Assessment for Myrtle Creek, NSW

Myrtle Creek, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Myrtle Creek faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events. The suburb is not exposed to coastal risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Myrtle Creek

increasing

Flood

65/100

Myrtle Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Myrtle Creek has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Myrtle Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Myrtle Creek is not located near the coast and has a negligible risk from coastal hazards.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Myrtle Creek

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Myrtle Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Myrtle Creek faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Low-lying areas

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Myrtle Creek is not located near the coast and has a negligible risk from coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Myrtle Creek has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Surrounding vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to rising flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range
100-120m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Local creeks may overflow during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves typically occur in January and February.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
200 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Myrtle Creek, impacting several homes and businesses.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Myrtle Creek threatened properties, but was contained by fire crews.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on local resources.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires impacted the region surrounding Myrtle Creek, causing significant smoke haze and some property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Myrtle Creek is projected to experience a noticeable increase in flood and heatwave risks. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate these impacts.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and build levees to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs on bushfire safety and assist residents with property clearing.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents, including establishing cooling centers and providing support services.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Water Conservation Measures

Long-term

Promote water conservation practices to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Resilience Building

Long-term

Foster community networks and support systems to enhance resilience to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Myrtle Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Myrtle Creek, NSW, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts over the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity is expected to elevate flood risk, particularly in low-lying areas and near waterways. Residents should stay informed about flood warnings and take necessary precautions.

Bushfire risk is also anticipated to rise due to hotter, drier conditions. The surrounding vegetation makes the area susceptible to bushfires, and proactive measures are essential to protect properties and lives. Regular maintenance, clearing of vegetation, and having a bushfire survival plan are crucial.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. Staying hydrated, seeking cool environments, and checking on neighbors during heatwaves are important strategies.

While Myrtle Creek is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand on emergency services, may still affect the community. Preparing for these indirect impacts is also important.

Overall, Myrtle Creek needs to focus on adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change and build resilience within the community. This includes investing in infrastructure improvements, promoting community awareness, and supporting vulnerable residents.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Myrtle Creek?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How can I prepare my home for a flood?

Elevate appliances, store valuables above flood level, and have an evacuation plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Myrtle Creek?

Consult the local council's website, the NSW government's climate change resources, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Is Myrtle Creek likely to experience water shortages in the future?

With increasing temperatures and potential for drought, water conservation is becoming more important. Consider installing rainwater tanks and using water efficiently.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

Climate Risk Assessment for Myrtle Creek, NSW | ClimateNest