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Climate Risk in Narellan, New South Wales

Narellan, New South Wales· Camden· 2567
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Narellan faces increasing risks from heatwaves and flooding due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Narellan

increasing

Flood

60/100

Narellan faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Narellan is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Narellan is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Narellan is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Narellan

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Narellan is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Narellan faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Narellan is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Narellan is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Narellan Creek
Elevation Range
40-60m
Flood Zone
Areas near Narellan Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that Narellan Creek has overflowed its banks in the past, impacting nearby residential and commercial areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Some properties border bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website for bushfire prone areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and southern edges of Narellan have higher bushfire risk due to proximity to undeveloped land.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The average maximum temperature in January is increasing, leading to more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused Narellan Creek to flood, impacting some residential areas.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding region caused smoky conditions in Narellan.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Narellan experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas of Narellan.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Narellan is projected to experience a noticeable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a higher risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Increase Vegetation Cover

Near-term

Plant more trees and vegetation to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Maintain properties, clear vegetation, and prepare a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Narellan's Climate Risk Profile

Narellan, located in the Macarthur region of New South Wales, is projected to experience significant impacts from climate change. The primary concerns are increased heatwaves, more intense rainfall leading to flooding, and a heightened risk of bushfires.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase due to more frequent and intense rainfall events. This could impact properties located near waterways and low-lying areas. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and severe, posing a threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect may exacerbate these impacts. Measures to increase vegetation cover and improve building insulation can help mitigate the effects of heat.

While Narellan is not directly on the coast, the increased bushfire risk due to hotter and drier conditions is a significant concern. Properties bordering bushland are particularly vulnerable. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual actions, community initiatives, and government policies. Investing in infrastructure improvements, promoting sustainable development, and raising community awareness are crucial steps to building resilience to climate change in Narellan.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Camden Council

Local Government Resources

Camden Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Narellan?

The main risks are increased heatwaves, more intense rainfall leading to flooding, and a heightened risk of bushfires.

How can I prepare my home for a heatwave?

Install insulation, use fans and air conditioning, and stay hydrated. Consider planting trees to provide shade.

What should I do during a flood?

Stay informed about flood warnings, move valuables to higher ground, and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

Maintain your property, clear vegetation, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Narellan?

Visit the Camden Council website or the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website for more information.

Is Narellan likely to experience water restrictions in the future?

Due to climate change and potential droughts, water restrictions may become more frequent. Conserving water is important.

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