Climate Risk Profile: Narran Lake, NSW

Narran Lake, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Narran Lake faces notable risks from flooding and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change. Bushfire risk is moderate, while coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events in the future.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Narran Lake

increasing

Flood

60/100

Narran Lake is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying topography and proximity to the Narran River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Narran Lake has some bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions associated with climate change may increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Narran Lake experiences high temperatures, particularly during summer. Climate change is projected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Heatwave frequency
stable

Coastal

10/100

Narran Lake is not located near the coast, therefore the risk of coastal hazards is very low.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Narran Lake

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Narran Lake experiences high temperatures, particularly during summer. Climate change is projected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Heatwave frequency
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Narran Lake is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying topography and proximity to the Narran River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Narran Lake is not located near the coast, therefore the risk of coastal hazards is very low.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Narran Lake has some bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions associated with climate change may increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation density

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property protection measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property comfort and energy costs.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Narran River
Elevation Range
Relatively flat
Flood Zone
Likely

The flat terrain around Narran Lake makes it prone to widespread inundation during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
Likely
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas with significant vegetation surrounding Narran Lake are designated as bushfire-prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
35°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Narran Lake experiences several days above 35°C during the summer months, increasing the risk of heat stress.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
700 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in the Narran Lake area, impacting local infrastructure and agriculture.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Narran Lake, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several consecutive days.

Source
2019
droughtMajor

Severe drought conditions impacted the Narran Lake region, affecting water resources and agricultural productivity.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Narran Lake is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding, bushfire, and heatwave risks. Adaptation measures will be crucial to mitigate these impacts.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and improve drainage systems to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation clearing and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Infrastructure

Long-term

Upgrade critical infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

About Narran Lake's Climate Risk Profile

Narran Lake, located in New South Wales, is an area that faces several climate-related challenges. The primary concerns are flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present.

Flooding is a significant issue due to the area's proximity to the Narran River and low-lying topography. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, is expected to exacerbate flood risks in the coming years. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have evacuation plans in place.

Heatwaves are another major concern, with the region already experiencing high temperatures during summer. Climate change projections indicate that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, posing a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with surrounding vegetation contributing to the potential for fires. Hotter, drier conditions associated with climate change may increase the likelihood of bushfires, requiring residents to maintain their properties and be prepared for evacuation if necessary.

While coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location, Narran Lake must focus on adapting to the increasing threats of flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires to ensure the safety and well-being of its community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Narran Lake?

The main climate risks include flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Narran Lake?

Increasing climate risks may negatively impact property values due to increased insurance premiums and potential damage from extreme weather events.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents should stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

What are the local council's plans for addressing climate change?

The local council is currently developing a climate adaptation strategy to address the specific risks facing Narran Lake. Please check the council website for updates.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Narran Lake?

Information about flood risks can be found on the NSW State Emergency Service website and potentially on the local council website, if available.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections